🛠 Workshop Buổi 12: Hoàn thiện Valuation Deck

"A model is only as good as its communication. The best analysis in the world is useless if no one understands it."

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🎯 Mục tiêu Workshop

#	Mục tiêu	Output
1	Finalize Excel Model	3-Statement + DCF + Comps integrated
2	Build PowerPoint Deck	15–20 slides chuẩn ER/IB format
3	Peer Review	Cross-audit model + slides
4	Prepare 15-minute pitch	Script + Q&A preparation

Thời lượng: 180 phút (3 giờ) Deliverable: Complete Excel Model + PowerPoint Deck + Ready to present

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Bước 1: Finalize Excel Model (60 phút)

1.1 Tích hợp từ các buổi trước

Model cuối cùng tích hợp tất cả components đã build:

Tab	Source	Status	Check
Assumptions	Buổi 10	Finalize growth rates, margins, WC drivers	☐
Income Statement	Buổi 10	3Y historical + 5Y projection	☐
Balance Sheet	Buổi 10	Full build, A = L + E check	☐
Cash Flow	Buổi 10	CFO + CFI + CFF, ending cash → BS	☐
DCF	Buổi 5	FCFF, WACC, Terminal Value, EV bridge	☐
WACC	Buổi 8	CAPM, Beta, Cost of Debt, weights	☐
Comps	Buổi 6	5+ peers, EV/EBITDA, P/E, implied valuation	☐
Sensitivity	Buổi 5	2-way data table: WACC × g	☐
Football Field	Buổi 6	Chart data + horizontal bar chart	☐
Error Checks	New	Balance check, circular toggle, #REF scan	☐

1.2 Error Check Tab

Tạo tab "Checks" với các automated checks:

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  ERROR CHECKS                                │
│                                              │
│  1. Balance Sheet Check                      │
│     FY2022: A - (L+E) = 0 ✅                │
│     FY2023: A - (L+E) = 0 ✅                │
│     FY2024E: A - (L+E) = 0 ✅               │
│     FY2025E: A - (L+E) = 0 ✅               │
│                                              │
│  2. Cash Reconciliation                      │
│     CF Ending Cash = BS Cash? ✅             │
│                                              │
│  3. Circular Reference Toggle                │
│     Circularity ON/OFF: [ON] ✅              │
│     Interest matches Debt Schedule? ✅        │
│                                              │
│  4. #REF! / #DIV/0! Scan                    │
│     Errors found: 0 ✅                       │
│                                              │
│  5. Negative Cash Check                      │
│     Min cash any period: 2,150 tỷ ✅         │
│                                              │
│  OVERALL STATUS: ██ ALL CLEAR ██             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Excel formula cho Balance Check:

=IF(ABS(Total_Assets - Total_Liabilities - Total_Equity) < 0.01, "✅", "❌ IMBALANCE!")

1.3 Final Model Hygiene

Rule	Implementation
Color coding	Blue = input, Black = formula, Green = cross-tab link
One formula per row	Drag across periods, don't rewrite formulas
No hardcoded numbers	Link everything to Assumptions tab
Units	Header row: "VND billions" or "tỷ VND" consistently
Number format	Thousands separator, 1 decimal for ratios, 0 for VND
Print area	Set for each tab — landscape for financial tables

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Bước 2: Build PowerPoint Deck (50 phút)

2.1 Template Structure — 20 Slides

Slide #	Title	Content	Time in Pitch
1	Cover Page	Company, Analyst, Date, Recommendation	0:00
2	Executive Summary	Key metrics table + thesis + risks	0:00–1:00
3	Investment Thesis	3 numbered bullets with data	1:00–2:30
4	Industry Overview	Market size, growth trends	2:30–4:00
5	Competitive Landscape	Porter's 5 Forces / comp map	4:00–5:00
6	Company Overview	Business model, segments	5:00–6:00
7	Revenue Breakdown	Pie chart + growth by segment	6:00–6:30
8	Financial Summary	Revenue, margins, ROE trend	6:30–7:30
9	DuPont Analysis	3-factor waterfall chart	7:30–8:00
10	Peer Comparison	Key ratios vs. comps (spider/table)	8:00–8:30
11	Red Flags & Quality	Clean/watch items	8:30–9:00
12	DCF Overview	Assumptions + FCFF build-up	9:00–10:00
13	DCF Bridge	EV → Equity Value → Price/Share	10:00–10:30
14	Sensitivity Table	WACC × g color-coded	10:30–11:00
15	Trading Comps	Peer multiples + implied valuation	11:00–11:30
16	Football Field	Horizontal bar chart — all methods	11:30–12:00
17	Target Price	Weighted derivation	12:00–12:30
18	Catalysts	3–4 events with timeline	12:30–13:00
19	Risks & Mitigants	2-column: risk + mitigation	13:00–14:00
20	Recommendation	BUY/SELL/HOLD — closing statement	14:00–15:00

2.2 Slide Design Rules

Rule	Do	Don't
Text	6 bullet points max per slide	Paragraphs of text
Font size	≥ 18pt body, ≥ 24pt heading	< 14pt
Charts	1 chart per slide, message title	Multiple cluttered charts
Colors	2–3 colors max, consistent palette	Rainbow colors
Data	Source cited on every data slide	Unsourced claims
Animation	None or minimal	Excessive transitions

2.3 Key Slides — Design Examples

Slide 2: Executive Summary

┌──────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  FPT Corporation (HOSE: FPT)             │
│  ██ BUY ██  Target: 118,000 VND  +24%    │
│                                           │
│  ┌─────────────┬─────────┬─────────┐     │
│  │ Metric      │ FY2023  │ FY2024E │     │
│  │ Revenue     │ 52,349  │ 62,000  │     │
│  │ EBITDA Mgn  │ 16.2%   │ 17.5%   │     │
│  │ P/E         │ 20.2x   │ 16.0x   │     │
│  │ EV/EBITDA   │ 13.5x   │ 11.2x   │     │
│  │ ROE         │ 24.8%   │ 26.1%   │     │
│  └─────────────┴─────────┴─────────┘     │
│                                           │
│  Thesis:                                  │
│  1. AI/DX demand → Software +25% YoY     │
│  2. Margin expansion from automation      │
│  3. Discount vs. regional IT peers        │
│                                           │
│  Risks: FX, talent retention, Japan GDP   │
└──────────────────────────────────────────┘

Slide 16: Football Field

┌──────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Valuation Summary — Football Field       │
│                                           │
│  52-Week    ├▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓┤            │
│             72K ──── 105K                 │
│                                           │
│  DCF            ├▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓┤      │
│                 79K ─────── 119K          │
│                                           │
│  Comps              ├▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓┤      │
│                     85K ──── 112K         │
│                                           │
│  Current: 95K ▲    Target: 118K ▲        │
│                                           │
│  → Upside +24% to target price            │
└──────────────────────────────────────────┘

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Bước 3: Peer Review (30 phút)

3.1 Quy trình

1. Swap models: Đổi file Excel + PPT với peer/nhóm khác
2. Audit formulas: Trace key formulas, check links
3. Challenge assumptions: Tại sao growth 18%? Tại sao WACC 10%?
4. Format check: Color coding, balance check, chart quality
5. Write feedback: 3 strengths + 3 improvements

3.2 Peer Review Checklist

Excel Model:

#	Item	Reviewer Check
1	BS balances all periods?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
2	Cash Flow → BS cash reconciles?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
3	FCFF formula correct?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
4	WACC inputs sourced?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
5	Terminal Value reasonable (≤ 80% EV)?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
6	Sensitivity table functional?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
7	Color coding maintained?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
8	No #REF! or #DIV/0! errors?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue

PowerPoint Deck:

#	Item	Reviewer Check
1	Executive Summary standalone?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
2	Recommendation clear (BUY/SELL/HOLD)?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
3	Target Price with derivation?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
4	Football Field chart included?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
5	Risks acknowledged?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
6	Charts have message titles?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
7	Font size ≥ 18pt?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue
8	Sources cited?	☐ OK / ☐ Issue

3.3 Feedback Template

PEER REVIEW FEEDBACK
Reviewer: _______________
Team/Analyst: _______________

3 STRENGTHS:
1. _______________
2. _______________
3. _______________

3 IMPROVEMENTS:
1. _______________
2. _______________
3. _______________

CRITICAL ISSUE (if any):
_______________

OVERALL: ☐ Ready to present  ☐ Minor fixes  ☐ Major revision needed

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Bước 4: Prepare 15-Minute Pitch (40 phút)

4.1 Script Outline

Time	Section	Key Message	Slides
0:00–1:00	Opening	Hook + Recommendation	1–2
1:00–3:00	Thesis	3 reasons to BUY	3
3:00–5:00	Industry	Why this sector, why now	4–5
5:00–7:00	Company	Business model deep-dive	6–7
7:00–9:00	Financials	Performance + ratios	8–11
9:00–12:00	Valuation	DCF + Comps + Football Field	12–16
12:00–13:00	Target Price	Derivation + catalysts	17–18
13:00–14:00	Risks	Top risks + mitigants	19
14:00–15:00	Closing	Recommendation restate	20

4.2 Opening Hook Examples

Type	Example
Data hook	"FPT đang giao dịch ở P/E 20x — trong khi Infosys ở 25x, với growth chỉ bằng 2/3."
Question hook	"Nếu AI thay đổi mọi ngành — công ty IT nào ở Việt Nam benefit nhất?"
Contrast hook	"Market says FPT fairly valued. We disagree — here's why."
News hook	"Tuần trước, FPT ký hợp đồng $200M với đối tác Nhật. Đây mới chỉ là bắt đầu."

4.3 Q&A Preparation — Top 15 Questions

#	Question	Prepared Answer
1	"What's your bear case?"	Bear: WACC 11%, g 2% → TP 74,000 VND (−22%)
2	"Why BUY not HOLD?"	24% upside > 15% hurdle, 3 catalysts within 12 months
3	"WACC quá thấp/cao?"	Sourced: Rf=4.5% (TPCP 10Y), β=0.95 (regression), ERP=8% (Damodaran)
4	"Terminal Value quá lớn?"	TV = 77% EV, within 60–80% norm. Cross-check: Exit 13x EBITDA → similar
5	"Tại sao không dùng P/E primary?"	P/E bị distort bởi capital structure. EV/EBITDA neutral
6	"Beta regression đáng tin?"	60-month monthly returns, R² = 0.35. Cross-check: bottom-up β = 0.90
7	"Growth 18% sustainable?"	FPT Software CAGR 23%, global DX market growing 20%+. Conservative vs. history
8	"FX risk mitigation?"	40% revenue in USD → natural hedge. Plus forward contracts
9	"Tại sao peer group này?"	Same industry (IT services), similar size ($1–5B), APAC geography
10	"What if Japan enters recession?"	Japan = 55% of FPT Software revenue. Bear scenario includes −10% Japan IT spend
11	"Margin expansion realistic?"	AI/automation reducing delivery cost → observed at Infosys +200bps over 3 years
12	"Dividend policy?"	FPT payout ~30%. Not a dividend story — growth reinvestment
13	"Capital allocation concern?"	Education segment growing but ROE lower. Management guided to cap at 10% revenue
14	"ESG considerations?"	Carbon neutral target 2040. Employee training investment top VN.
15	"Position sizing?"	3–5% of portfolio — high conviction but VN market premium for illiquidity

4.4 Presentation Tips

Tip	Chi tiết
Eye contact	Nhìn audience, không nhìn slide
Body language	Đứng thẳng, tay mở, di chuyển nhẹ
Voice	Rõ ràng, pace vừa phải, pause ở key points
Slide navigation	Thuộc thứ tự, không cần nhìn lại
Timer	Set timer 15 phút, practice 3 lần trước
Team transition	Nếu nhóm — chuyển người mượt, không awkward pause
Q&A	Lắng nghe hết câu hỏi → pause 2 giây → trả lời

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📋 Deliverables Checklist

Excel Model

Component	Status
Assumptions tab	☐
Income Statement (3Y hist + 5Y forecast)	☐
Balance Sheet (balances checked)	☐
Cash Flow Statement (reconciled)	☐
WACC Calculation	☐
DCF (FCFF, TV, EV bridge)	☐
Comps (≥5 peers)	☐
Sensitivity (2-way table)	☐
Football Field data	☐
Error Checks tab	☐

PowerPoint Deck

Component	Status
Cover Page	☐
Executive Summary	☐
Investment Thesis (3 bullets)	☐
Industry + Company (4 slides)	☐
Financial Analysis (4 slides)	☐
DCF + Comps + Sensitivity (4 slides)	☐
Football Field Chart	☐
Target Price derivation	☐
Catalysts + Risks	☐
Recommendation (closing slide)	☐

Pitch Preparation

Component	Status
Script outline (15 min)	☐
Opening hook prepared	☐
Q&A prep (≥10 questions)	☐
Practice run #1 (solo)	☐
Practice run #2 (with peer)	☐
Practice run #3 (timed)	☐

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✅ Rubric đánh giá

Tiêu chí	Xuất sắc (A)	Khá (B)	Đạt (C)
Model (30%)	BS balances, no errors, professional format, all tabs complete	Minor issues, mostly complete	Functional but messy
Valuation (25%)	DCF + Comps + Sensitivity + Football Field, well-justified	2 methods + sensitivity	1 method only
Slides (20%)	20 slides, IBCS quality, message titles, sourced	15+ slides, professional	Basic slides
Pitch (15%)	15 min, confident, handles Q&A well	Good delivery, some Q&A gaps	Reads slides
Analysis (10%)	Industry + Company + Risk fully covered	Mostly covered	Surface level

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🧭 Điều hướng

Nội dung	Link
📘 Bài học chính	Capstone — Full Valuation Deck
📝 Blog	Từ sinh viên đến Analyst
🧠 Case Study	Goldman Sachs ER · FPT Deck · CFA Research Challenge
🏆 Tiêu chuẩn	CFA Research Challenge · IBCS · ER Format
🎮 Mini Game	Pitch Competition