Case Study — Buổi 10: 3-Statement Model thực chiến

"A model is only as good as the assumptions behind it — and the discipline of the person who built it."

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Case Study 1: Apple — 3-Statement Template chuẩn Goldman Sachs

Bối cảnh

Apple Inc. (AAPL) là case study kinh điển cho 3-Statement Model vì:

• Revenue diversified: iPhone, Services, Mac, iPad, Wearables
• Margin profile rõ ràng: Hardware vs Services mix shift
• Capital return program khổng lồ: Buybacks + Dividends
• Clean Balance Sheet: Gần như net cash neutral (sau khi trả hết nợ massive)

Goldman Sachs coverage model cho Apple thường có 30+ tabs, nhưng core logic vẫn là 3-Statement.

Apple — Simplified Historical Data ($B, FY ending Sep)

Income Statement:

Chỉ tiêu ($B)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	Notes
Revenue	394.3	383.3	391.0	Slight decline → recovery
iPhone	205.5	200.6	201.2	~51% of Rev
Services	78.1	85.2	96.2	Fastest growing, highest margin
Mac	40.2	29.4	30.0	Cyclical
iPad	29.3	28.3	27.0	Declining
Wearables/Other	41.2	39.8	36.6
COGS	(223.5)	(214.1)	(213.7)
Gross Profit	170.8	169.2	177.3
Gross Margin	43.3%	44.1%	45.3%	Services mix ↑
OpEx (R&D + SGA)	(51.3)	(54.8)	(58.5)
EBIT	119.4	114.3	118.8
EBIT Margin	30.3%	29.8%	30.4%
Interest (net)	(0.3)	(0.6)	(0.1)	Near zero net interest
EBT	119.1	113.7	118.7
Tax	(19.3)	(16.7)	(18.3)	ETR ~15.4%
Net Income	99.8	97.0	100.4

Balance Sheet:

Chỉ tiêu ($B)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024
Cash & Marketable Securities	48.3	29.9	30.3
Accounts Receivable	28.2	29.5	31.5
Inventory	4.9	6.3	7.3
Other Current Assets	21.2	14.7	16.0
Total Current Assets	135.4	143.6	153.1
PP&E (net)	42.1	43.7	45.7
Other Non-current	175.5	163.8	165.2
Total Assets	352.8	352.6	364.8
AP	64.1	62.6	68.8
Short-term Debt	11.1	9.8	10.9
Other Current Liabilities	79.1	81.1	85.0
Total Current Liabilities	154.0	145.3	176.4
Long-term Debt	98.9	95.3	85.8
Other Non-current Liabilities	49.1	50.0	46.1
Total Liabilities	302.1	290.4	308.0
Total Equity	50.7	62.1	56.9

Goldman Sachs Model — Key Features

Revenue Build (Segment-level):

Segment	FY2025E	FY2026E	FY2027E	Driver
iPhone	210.2	220.7	229.5	AI upgrade cycle (5% → 4%)
Services	108.5	121.5	135.3	12.8% → 11.4% CAGR
Mac	32.4	34.0	35.4	Refresh cycle
iPad	28.4	29.5	30.5	Flat-ish
Wearables	37.5	39.0	40.6	Modest growth
Total	417.0	444.7	471.3	6.7% → 6.0%

Gross Margin Build (Blended from segment margins):

$$G{M}_{blended}=\sum _i\frac{Re{v}_i}{Re{v}_{total}}\times G{M}_i$$

Segment	GM (FY2024)	GM (FY2027E)	Trend
iPhone	41%	42%	Stable
Services	72%	74%	Mix toward higher-margin subs
Mac	32%	33%
iPad	30%	31%
Wearables	33%	34%
Blended	45.3%	47.2%	Services mix lift

Working Capital Schedule (Days-based):

Metric	FY2024	FY2025E	FY2026E	FY2027E
DSO	29	29	29	29
DIO	12	12	12	12
DPO	117	115	113	112
CCC	−76	−74	−72	−71

Apple có CCC âm — họ thu tiền trước khi trả supplier. Đây là lợi thế working capital khổng lồ.

PP&E Schedule:

$$PP\mathrm{\&}{E}_{end}=PP\mathrm{\&}{E}_{begin}+CapEx-Depreciation$$

($B)	FY2024	FY2025E	FY2026E	FY2027E
Begin PP&E	43.7	45.7	47.8	50.0
CapEx	11.0	12.0	13.0	13.5
Depreciation	(9.0)	(9.9)	(10.8)	(11.5)
End PP&E	45.7	47.8	50.0	52.0

Debt Schedule & Interest:

($B)	FY2024	FY2025E	FY2026E	FY2027E
Begin Total Debt	105.1	96.7	86.7	76.7
Issuance	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Repayment	(8.4)	(10.0)	(10.0)	(10.0)
End Total Debt	96.7	86.7	76.7	66.7
Avg Debt	100.9	91.7	81.7	71.7
Wtd Avg Rate	2.8%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
Interest Expense	(2.8)	(2.7)	(2.5)	(2.2)

Apple đang aggressively pay down debt — mô hình nên phản ánh declining interest expense.

Cash Flow Build

($B)	FY2025E	FY2026E	FY2027E
Net Income	108.5	118.0	127.0
D&A	9.9	10.8	11.5
ΔWC	(1.2)	(1.5)	(1.3)
Other non-cash	3.5	3.5	3.5
CFO	120.7	130.8	140.7
CapEx	(12.0)	(13.0)	(13.5)
CFI	(12.0)	(13.0)	(13.5)
Debt repayment	(10.0)	(10.0)	(10.0)
Dividends	(15.5)	(16.0)	(16.5)
Buybacks	(78.0)	(85.0)	(90.0)
CFF	(103.5)	(111.0)	(116.5)
Net Change Cash	5.2	6.8	10.7

Balance Check

$$\text{Total Assets}-\text{Total L\&E}=0✅\text{All projected years}$$

Key Takeaways từ Apple Model

1. Revenue Build by segment — không dùng 1 growth rate cho cả company
2. Gross Margin by segment rồi blend — phản ánh mix shift
3. Massive capital return (Buybacks + Dividends > CFO) → Equity giảm
4. CCC âm — Apple là "cash machine" nhờ supplier power
5. Debt paydown → Interest giảm → ít circular stress

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Case Study 2: FPT — Build 3-Statement từ BCTC thực

Bối cảnh

FPT Corporation là case study lý tưởng cho sinh viên Việt Nam:

• BCTC tiếng Việt, dễ access
• Đa segment: IT Services, Telecom, Education
• Working Capital dynamics rõ ràng (DSO khá cao — 70+ ngày)
• Debt level moderate → circular reference có ý nghĩa

Historical BCTC (Rút gọn)

Income Statement:

Chỉ tiêu (tỷ VND)	2022	2023	2024E
Revenue	44,017	52,349	61,300
COGS	(32,449)	(38,196)	(44,136)
Gross Profit	11,568	14,153	17,164
Gross Margin	26.3%	27.0%	28.0%
SG&A	(3,200)	(3,930)	(4,600)
D&A	(2,100)	(2,450)	(2,800)
Other OpEx	(519)	(743)	(1,064)
EBIT	5,749	7,030	8,700
Interest Expense	(580)	(650)	(700)
Other Income	320	400	450
EBT	5,489	6,780	8,450
Tax (15%)	(823)	(1,017)	(1,268)
Net Income	4,666	5,763	7,183

Balance Sheet:

Chỉ tiêu (tỷ VND)	2022	2023	2024E
Cash	16,500	18,200	22,000
AR	8,200	10,100	12,000
Inventory	1,100	1,300	1,500
Other CA	2,500	3,000	3,200
Total CA	28,300	32,600	38,700
PP&E (net)	8,500	10,200	12,100
Intangibles	3,200	3,800	4,200
Other NCA	5,000	5,500	6,000
Total Assets	45,000	52,100	61,000
AP	4,800	5,900	7,000
ST Debt	3,000	3,200	3,500
Other CL	4,200	5,000	5,800
Total CL	12,000	14,100	16,300
LT Debt	4,500	4,800	5,000
Other NCL	1,500	1,700	1,900
Total Liabilities	18,000	20,600	23,200
Minority Interest	2,500	2,800	3,200
Equity	24,500	28,700	34,600

3-Statement Build — Step by Step

Step 1: Assumptions

Assumption	2025E	2026E	2027E
Revenue Growth	16%	15%	14%
Gross Margin	28.5%	29.0%	29.5%
SG&A / Revenue	7.5%	7.3%	7.0%
D&A / Revenue	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Other OpEx / Revenue	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Tax Rate	15%	15%	15%
DSO	70	69	68
DIO	12	12	12
DPO	59	60	60
CapEx / Revenue	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Interest Rate	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%
Dividend Payout	25%	25%	25%

Step 2: Projected IS

Chỉ tiêu (tỷ VND)	2025E	2026E	2027E
Revenue	71,108	81,774	93,223
COGS	(50,842)	(58,060)	(65,722)
Gross Profit	20,266	23,714	27,501
SG&A	(5,333)	(5,970)	(6,526)
D&A	(3,200)	(3,680)	(4,195)
Other OpEx	(1,067)	(1,227)	(1,398)
EBIT	10,666	12,837	15,382
Interest Expense	(from Debt Sched.)	—	—
Interest Income	(from Cash × r)	—	—
EBT	—	—	—
Tax (15%)	—	—	—
Net Income	—	—	—

EBT trở xuống hoàn thành sau khi link Debt Schedule & solve circularity.

Step 3: Working Capital Schedule

WC (tỷ VND)	2024A	2025E	2026E	2027E
AR	12,000	13,637	15,460	17,370
Inventory	1,500	1,671	1,909	2,160
AP	7,000	8,221	9,538	10,803
NWC	6,500	7,087	7,831	8,727
ΔWC		587	744	896

Step 4: PP&E Schedule

$$PP\mathrm{\&}{E}_{end}=PP\mathrm{\&}{E}_{begin}+CapEx-D\mathrm{\&}A$$

PP&E (tỷ VND)	2024A	2025E	2026E	2027E
Begin	10,200	12,100	12,811	13,629
CapEx	4,700	3,911	4,498	5,127
D&A	(2,800)	(3,200)	(3,680)	(4,195)
End	12,100	12,811	13,629	14,561

Step 5: Debt Schedule (with circularity note)

Debt (tỷ VND)	2024A	2025E	2026E	2027E
Begin Debt	8,000	8,500	8,500	8,500
New Issuance	1,500	500	500	500
Repayment	(1,000)	(500)	(500)	(500)
End Debt	8,500	8,500	8,500	8,500
Avg Debt	8,250	8,500	8,500	8,500
× Interest Rate	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%
Interest Exp	(619)	(638)	(638)	(638)

Step 6: Complete IS (post-circularity)

Sau khi link Interest:

Chỉ tiêu (tỷ VND)	2025E	2026E	2027E
EBIT	10,666	12,837	15,382
Interest Expense	(638)	(638)	(638)
Other Income	500	550	600
EBT	10,528	12,749	15,344
Tax (15%)	(1,579)	(1,912)	(2,302)
Net Income	8,949	10,837	13,042

Step 7: Cash Flow Statement

CF (tỷ VND)	2025E	2026E	2027E
Net Income	8,949	10,837	13,042
(+) D&A	3,200	3,680	4,195
(−) ΔWC	(587)	(744)	(896)
CFO	11,562	13,773	16,341
(−) CapEx	(3,911)	(4,498)	(5,127)
CFI	(3,911)	(4,498)	(5,127)
ΔDebt	0	0	0
Dividends (25% NI)	(2,237)	(2,709)	(3,260)
CFF	(2,237)	(2,709)	(3,260)
Net Change	5,414	6,566	7,954
Begin Cash	22,000	27,414	33,980
End Cash	27,414	33,980	41,934

Step 8: Balance Check

Check (tỷ VND)	2025E	2026E	2027E
Total Assets	68,142	78,819	91,592
Total L&E	68,142	78,819	91,592
Difference	0	0	0
Status	✅	✅	✅

Key Insights

1. FPT là cash generative — End Cash tăng mạnh mỗi năm vì CFO >> CapEx
2. DSO 70 ngày — khá cao cho tech company, cải thiện DSO 1 ngày → giải phóng ~200 tỷ cash
3. Debt stable → Interest ổn định → Circular reference dễ converge
4. Dividend payout 25% — conservative, phần lớn NI retained → Equity grows

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Case Study 3: So sánh WSP vs CFI 3-Statement Standards

Bối cảnh

Wall Street Prep (WSP) và Corporate Finance Institute (CFI) là 2 nền tảng training financial modeling phổ biến nhất. Mỗi bên có approach hơi khác khi build 3-Statement Model.

So sánh chi tiết

Feature	WSP Standard	CFI (FMVA) Standard
Tab count	7–10 tabs	5–8 tabs
Revenue approach	Segment build + bottoms-up	Top-down growth + segment split
WC driver	Days-based (DSO, DIO, DPO)	Days-based (same)
D&A	% of beginning PP&E	% of Revenue
Interest	Avg Debt × Rate (circular)	Beginning Debt × Rate (no circular)
Circular handling	Iterative Calc + Toggle Switch	Beginning balance (avoid circular)
Cash plug	✅ Cash or Revolver	✅ Cash only (simplified)
Color coding	Blue/Black/Green strict	Blue/Black (Green optional)
Error checks	Dedicated row per sheet	Single Error Check tab
Formatting	Extensive (print-ready)	Moderate (screen-ready)

Interest Calculation — Key Difference

WSP (Average Balance — More Accurate, Circular):

$${\text{Interest}}_t=\frac{Deb{t}_{t-1}+Deb{t}_t}{2}\times r$$

→ Requires iterative calculation → more accurate nhưng phức tạp hơn.

CFI (Beginning Balance — Simpler, No Circular):

$${\text{Interest}}_t=Deb{t}_{t-1}\times r$$

→ Không cần iteration → simpler nhưng kém chính xác (đặc biệt khi debt thay đổi lớn).

Khi nào dùng cách nào?

Tình huống	Approach khuyên dùng
IB / PE interview	WSP (Average Balance) — show bạn hiểu circularity
Quick analysis / học	CFI (Beginning Balance) — nhanh, ít lỗi
LBO Model (debt changes a lot)	WSP bắt buộc — vì Debt repayment là core
Simple projection / pitchbook	CFI — đủ chính xác

Verdict

Tiêu chí	WSP	CFI
Accuracy	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Simplicity	⭐⭐⭐	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Industry standard	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Learning curve	Steep	Moderate
IB interview ready	✅	⚠️
Best for	Serious IB/PE prep	General finance / FP&A

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Câu hỏi thảo luận

1. Apple: Tại sao Apple có CCC âm? Điều này ảnh hưởng thế nào đến Cash plug trong 3-Statement Model?

2. FPT: Nếu DSO giảm từ 70 → 60 ngày, ΔWC thay đổi bao nhiêu? Impact lên CFO và Ending Cash?

$$\mathrm{\Delta }AR=\frac{(70-60)\times \mathrm{71,108}}{365}=?$$

3. Circular Reference: Nếu FPT tăng debt từ 8,500 lên 15,000 tỷ, Interest Expense tăng bao nhiêu? Tác động lên NI → Cash → vòng circular sẽ converge ở đâu?

4. WSP vs CFI: Trong trường hợp LBO (debt giảm 50% trong 5 năm), sai lệch giữa Average Balance và Beginning Balance method là bao nhiêu %?

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Điều hướng Buổi 10

Tài liệu	Mô tả
📖 Bài giảng chính	Nội dung lý thuyết 3-Statement Model đầy đủ
📝 Blog	3-Statement Model: File Excel mà IB Analyst mất 80 giờ/tuần
📊 Case Study	Apple (Goldman Sachs), FPT BCTC thực, WSP/CFI comparison
📚 Standards	WSP, CFI, Macabacus, Goldman Sachs modeling standards
🔧 Workshop	Build 3-Statement Model — FPT 3 năm hoàn chỉnh
🎮 Game	Model Error Hunt — Tìm & sửa 8 lỗi ẩn trong model