Standards & Frameworks — Buổi 05: DCF Valuation

"Good valuation is about discipline, not complexity." — McKinsey & Company

Tổng quan các Frameworks

Buổi 05 tham chiếu 4 frameworks chuyên nghiệp cho DCF Valuation:

#	Framework	Tổ chức	Ứng dụng chính
1	CFA Level II — Equity Valuation (DCF)	CFA Institute	Exam & Professional Practice
2	McKinsey Valuation Framework	McKinsey & Company	Consulting & Advisory
3	Damodaran DCF Framework	NYU Stern (Aswath Damodaran)	Academic & Practitioner
4	CFI FMVA — DCF Modeling	Corporate Finance Institute	Financial Modeling Certification

1. CFA Level II — Equity Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow

1.1 Vị trí trong CFA Curriculum

Level	Topic	Weight	Focus
I	Equity Investments	10–12%	Concepts & basic tools
II	Equity Valuation	10–15%	DCF models, Residual Income, Free Cash Flow
III	Equity Portfolio Mgmt	5–10%	Portfolio construction

CFA Level II Reading "Discounted Dividend Valuation" và "Free Cash Flow Valuation" là 2 readings quan trọng nhất cho DCF.

1.2 CFA's DCF Framework

CFA Institute phân loại DCF models theo dòng tiền sử dụng:

Model	Cash Flow	Discount Rate	Result
DDM (Dividend Discount)	Dividends	$K_{e}$	Equity Value
FCFE Model	Free Cash Flow to Equity	$K_{e}$	Equity Value
FCFF Model	Free Cash Flow to Firm	WACC	Enterprise Value
Residual Income	Economic Profit	$K_{e}$	Equity Value

1.3 CFA — FCFF Definition (Chính thức)

CFA sử dụng 3 cách tính FCFF:

Từ Net Income:

F C F F = N I + N C C + I n t (1 - t) - F C_{I n v} - W C_{I n v}

Từ EBIT:

F C F F = E B I T (1 - t) + D e p - F C_{I n v} - W C_{I n v}

Từ EBITDA:

F C F F = E B I T D A (1 - t) + D e p \times t - F C_{I n v} - W C_{I n v}

Trong đó:

$N C C$ = Non-cash charges (D&A, impairments, etc.)
$F C_{I n v}$ = Fixed Capital Investment (= CapEx − Proceeds from asset sales)
$W C_{I n v}$ = Working Capital Investment (= $Δ W C$ )

1.4 CFA — FCFE Definition

F C F E = F C F F - I n t (1 - t) + N e t B o r r o w i n g

Hoặc:

F C F E = N I + N C C - F C_{I n v} - W C_{I n v} + N e t B o r r o w i n g

1.5 CFA — Khi nào dùng model nào?

CFA Curriculum hướng dẫn rõ:

Điều kiện	Model phù hợp
Công ty trả dividend ổn định	DDM
Dividend không phản ánh capacity to pay	FCFE
Leverage thay đổi hoặc FCFE âm	FCFF
Công ty tài chính (ngân hàng, bảo hiểm)	DDM hoặc FCFE
Đang restructuring hoặc acquisition target	FCFF

1.6 CFA — Terminal Value

CFA cho phép 2 phương pháp:

Gordon Growth Model:

T V_{n} = \frac{F C F F_{n + 1}}{W A C C - g} = \frac{F C F F_{n} (1 + g)}{W A C C - g}

Yêu cầu của CFA:

$g < W A C C$ (bắt buộc, nếu không TV = ∞ hoặc âm)
$g$ nên ≤ long-term GDP growth rate
$g$ phải consistent với reinvestment rate: $g = R R \times R O I C$

Exit Multiple: CFA nhắc đến nhưng classify là "relative valuation embedded in DCF" — không hoàn toàn "pure" DCF.

1.7 CFA — Sensitivity Analysis Requirements

CFA Level II yêu cầu candidates hiểu:

Two-dimensional sensitivity table (WACC × g)
Scenario analysis (Base/Bull/Bear)
Impact of key assumptions trên valuation output

2. McKinsey Valuation Framework

2.1 Nguồn gốc

Cuốn sách "Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies" (McKinsey & Company, Tim Koller et al.) — hiện đã đến ấn bản thứ 7 — là "Bible of Valuation" trong ngành consulting.

2.2 McKinsey's Core Principle: Value = f(ROIC, Growth)

McKinsey's insight quan trọng nhất:

V a l u e = f (R O I C, G r o w t h)

"Growth creates value only when ROIC > WACC."

Value Creation Matrix:

	High ROIC (> WACC)	Low ROIC (< WACC)
High Growth	✅ Value Creation	⚠️ Value Destruction
Low Growth	⚠️ Moderate Value	❌ Value Trap

2.3 McKinsey's Key Value Driver Formula

V a l u e = \frac{N O P A T_{1}}{W A C C} \times (1 + \frac{R O I C - W A C C}{W A C C - g} \times \frac{g}{R O I C})

Simplified:

V a l u e = \frac{N O P A T}{W A C C - g} \times (1 - \frac{g}{R O I C}) \times \frac{1}{1 - \frac{g}{W A C C}}

Công thức này cho thấy: ROIC quyết định mỗi đồng growth tạo ra bao nhiêu value.

2.4 McKinsey DCF — Best Practices

Revenue Disaggregation:

McKinsey khuyên chia revenue thành:

Organic growth = Volume × Price
Inorganic growth = M&A contributions
Tách từng business unit / geography

ROIC Focus:

Thay vì chỉ nhìn FCFF, McKinsey nhấn mạnh tracking:

R O I C = \frac{N O P A T}{I n v e s t e d C a p i t a l}

Trong đó $I C = O p e r a t i n g A s s e t s - O p e r a t i n g L i a b i l i t i e s$ (không bao gồm excess cash, non-operating assets).

Continuing Value (Terminal Value):

McKinsey sử dụng:

C V = \frac{N O P A T_{n + 1} \times (1 - \frac{g}{R O I C})}{W A C C - g}

Sự khác biệt: McKinsey trừ đi reinvestment needed to sustain growth trực tiếp trong formula → tránh double-counting.

2.5 McKinsey — Checklist DCF Model

#	Item	Mô tả
1	Reorganize financial statements	Tách operating vs non-operating items
2	Calculate ROIC historicals	5+ năm, kiểm tra trend
3	Revenue disaggregation	By segment, geography, organic vs inorganic
4	NOPAT projection	Top-down & bottom-up
5	Invested Capital projection	Từ CapEx, D&A, WC schedules
6	FCFF = NOPAT − Net Investment	Consistency check
7	WACC estimation	Using market values, not book
8	Continuing Value	Key Value Driver formula
9	Discount & sum	Mid-year convention recommended
10	Sanity checks	Implied multiples, ROIC convergence

3. Damodaran DCF Framework

3.1 Giới thiệu

Aswath Damodaran — giáo sư tại NYU Stern School of Business — được gọi là "Dean of Valuation". Blog, datasets, và teaching materials của ông (damodaran.com) là tài liệu reference hàng đầu thế giới.

3.2 Damodaran's DCF Philosophy

"Every asset has an intrinsic value that can be estimated, based on its characteristics in terms of cash flows, growth, and risk."

3 pillars của Damodaran:

Pillar	Ý nghĩa	Trong DCF
Cash Flows	Dòng tiền kỳ vọng	FCFF hoặc FCFE
Growth	Tốc độ tăng trưởng kỳ vọng	Revenue & margin evolution
Risk	Rủi ro của dòng tiền	WACC hoặc $K_{e}$

3.3 Damodaran — Intrinsic Valuation Steps

Step	Action	Tools
1	Start with the story	Business analysis, competitive advantage
2	Map story → numbers	Revenue, margins, reinvestment
3	Estimate cash flows	FCFF or FCFE
4	Estimate growth	Historical, fundamental (ROIC × RR), analyst consensus
5	Estimate risk / discount rate	CAPM, bottom-up beta, country risk premium
6	Estimate terminal value	Stable growth model
7	Value the firm	PV of CFs + PV of TV
8	Effect of non-operating assets	Cash, cross-holdings, options
9	Subtract claims	Debt, preferred, minority
10	Per share value	Diluted shares (treasury stock method)

3.4 Damodaran — Growth Estimation

Damodaran chia growth thành 3 phases:

Phase	Duration	Growth	Characteristics
High Growth	5–10 năm	> Industry avg	Competitive advantage, reinvestment
Transition	3–5 năm	Declining	Maturation, competition catches up
Stable Growth	Perpetuity	≤ GDP growth	ROIC converges to WACC, payout increases

Fundamental Growth:

g = R e i n v e s t m e n t R a t e \times R O I C

g_{e q u i t y} = R e t e n t i o n R a t i o \times R O E

3.5 Damodaran — Country Risk Premium

Khi valuing emerging market companies (như FPT), Damodaran thêm Country Risk Premium (CRP):

K_{e} = R_{f} + β \times E R P + λ \times C R P

Trong đó:

$R_{f}$ = US Treasury yield (risk-free rate)
$β$ = Beta of stock
$E R P$ = Equity Risk Premium (US market)
$λ$ = Exposure to country risk (0 to 2, default = 1)
$C R P$ = Country Risk Premium (Vietnam ≈ 3–4%)

Damodaran cập nhật CRP hàng năm tại: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

3.6 Damodaran — Free Resources

Resource	URL	Nội dung
Country Risk Premiums	damodaran.com	CRP updated hàng năm
Industry Betas	damodaran.com	Unlevered & levered betas by industry
Cost of Capital by Industry	damodaran.com	WACC benchmarks
Valuation Spreadsheets	damodaran.com	DCF templates (FCFF, FCFE, DDM)
Teaching Notes & Videos	YouTube / NYU	Full semester courses free

4. CFI FMVA — DCF Modeling

4.1 Giới thiệu

Corporate Finance Institute (CFI) cung cấp chứng chỉ FMVA (Financial Modeling & Valuation Analyst) — chứng chỉ financial modeling phổ biến nhất toàn cầu. DCF Modeling là core course trong FMVA program.

4.2 CFI DCF Model Structure

CFI hướng dẫn xây DCF model trong Excel với cấu trúc:

Tab	Nội dung
Assumptions	Key inputs: growth, margins, WACC, terminal
Income Statement	3-year historical + 5-year projection
Balance Sheet	Historical + projected (for WC)
Cash Flow Statement	Historical + projected
Supporting Schedules	D&A, CapEx, WC, Debt schedules
DCF	FCFF calculation, TV, EV bridge, sensitivity
Output	Football field chart, summary page

4.3 CFI — FCFF Calculation Template

Revenue
(−) COGS
= Gross Profit
(−) SG&A
(−) R&D
= EBITDA
(−) D&A
= EBIT
(×) (1 − Tax Rate)
= NOPAT
(+) D&A (add back)
(−) CapEx
(−) Changes in Working Capital
= Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCFF)

4.4 CFI — Working Capital Schedule

Item	Metric	Formula
Accounts Receivable	DSO	$A R = \frac{D S O \times R e v e n u e}{365}$
Inventory	DIO	$I n v = \frac{D I O \times C O G S}{365}$
Prepaid Expenses	% Revenue	$P r e p a i d = % \times R e v e n u e$
Accounts Payable	DPO	$A P = \frac{D P O \times C O G S}{365}$
Accrued Expenses	% COGS	$A c c r u e d = % \times C O G S$
Deferred Revenue	% Revenue	$D R = % \times R e v e n u e$

Δ W C = (C A_{o p e r a t i n g, t} - C L_{o p e r a t i n g, t}) - (C A_{o p e r a t i n g, t - 1} - C L_{o p e r a t i n g, t - 1})

4.5 CFI — Terminal Value Best Practices

CFI khuyến nghị:

Practice	Mô tả
Dual method	Tính cả Gordon Growth lẫn Exit Multiple
Cross-reference	Implied growth ↔ Implied multiple phải hợp lý
TV % check	Nếu TV > 75% EV → cân nhắc extend projection period
Reality check	Terminal ROIC nên converge về WACC

4.6 CFI — Sensitivity Analysis Requirements

CFI yêu cầu minimum:

Analysis	Inputs	Output
2D Data Table	WACC × Terminal Growth	Price/Share
Scenario	Bull / Base / Bear	EV range
Tornado	Top 5–8 inputs	Impact on EV

4.7 CFI — Model Audit Checklist

#	Check	Pass?
1	Balance sheet balances in all years	☐
2	FCFF ties to from-NI and from-EBIT approaches	☐
3	Historical FCFF matches company filings	☐
4	No hard-coded numbers in projection years	☐
5	Circular reference resolved (if interest → NI → FCFF)	☐
6	TV implied multiple in reasonable range	☐
7	TV implied growth rate < GDP growth	☐
8	Sensitivity table functional and symmetric	☐
9	Football field chart includes 4+ valuation methods	☐
10	All sources documented in Assumptions tab	☐

So sánh 4 Frameworks

Tiêu chí	CFA	McKinsey	Damodaran	CFI FMVA
Audience	Exam candidates	Consultants	Academics & Practitioners	Financial Analysts
Focus	Theory + Application	Strategic + Operational	Story → Numbers	Practical Modeling
FCFF vs FCFE	Cả hai, chi tiết	FCFF preferred	Cả hai, case-by-case	FCFF primary
Terminal Value	Gordon Growth primary	Key Value Driver	Stable growth model	Dual method
WACC	Theory-heavy (CAPM)	Market-based, iterative	Country risk premium	Template-driven
Sensitivity	Required understanding	Scenario + Data Table	Monte Carlo optional	2D Table + Tornado
Unique strength	Rigorous theory	ROIC-driven value	Free data + templates	Excel best practices

Áp dụng Standards vào Buổi 05

Nội dung buổi học	CFA	McKinsey	Damodaran	CFI
FCFF / FCFE calculation	✅ Primary	✅	✅	✅
Projection methodology	⚠️ Basic	✅ Detailed	✅ Story-driven	✅ Template
Terminal Value	✅ Gordon	✅ Key Driver	✅ Stable Growth	✅ Dual
EV → Equity bridge	✅	✅	✅	✅
Sensitivity analysis	✅ Required	✅	✅	✅ Required
Football field chart	❌	⚠️	⚠️	✅
Model audit	❌	⚠️	❌	✅ Detailed

Tài liệu tham khảo chi tiết

Sách

CFA Institute — CFA Program Curriculum Level II: Equity Valuation (2025 Edition)
McKinsey — Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, Tim Koller et al. (7th Ed.)
Damodaran, A. — Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques (3rd Ed., Wiley)
Damodaran, A. — The Little Book of Valuation (Wiley)
Rosenbaum, J. & Pearl, J. — Investment Banking: Valuation, LBOs, M&A (3rd Ed.)

Online Resources

Damodaran Online — pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
CFI — corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/dcf-formula/
CFA Institute — cfainstitute.org/en/membership/professional-development
McKinsey Corporate Finance Practice — mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance

Data

Damodaran Datasets — Country Risk Premium, Industry Betas, Cost of Capital — Updated annually

Điều hướng Buổi 05

Tài liệu	Mô tả
📖 Bài giảng chính	Nội dung lý thuyết DCF đầy đủ
📝 Blog	DCF Valuation: Nghệ thuật định giá $1 tỷ từ 1 file Excel
📊 Case Study	Amazon DCF, FPT FCFF Model, Tesla Valuation
📚 Standards	CFA, McKinsey, Damodaran, CFI frameworks
🔧 Workshop	Xây DCF Model hoàn chỉnh từ BCTC FPT
🎮 Game	Valuation Auction — Ai định giá chính xác nhất?

Standards & Frameworks — Buổi 05: DCF Valuation ​

Tổng quan các Frameworks ​

1. CFA Level II — Equity Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow ​

1.1 Vị trí trong CFA Curriculum ​

1.2 CFA's DCF Framework ​

1.3 CFA — FCFF Definition (Chính thức) ​

1.4 CFA — FCFE Definition ​

1.5 CFA — Khi nào dùng model nào? ​

1.6 CFA — Terminal Value ​

1.7 CFA — Sensitivity Analysis Requirements ​

2. McKinsey Valuation Framework ​

2.1 Nguồn gốc ​

2.2 McKinsey's Core Principle: Value = f(ROIC, Growth) ​

2.3 McKinsey's Key Value Driver Formula ​

2.4 McKinsey DCF — Best Practices ​

2.5 McKinsey — Checklist DCF Model ​

3. Damodaran DCF Framework ​

3.1 Giới thiệu ​

3.2 Damodaran's DCF Philosophy ​

3.3 Damodaran — Intrinsic Valuation Steps ​

3.4 Damodaran — Growth Estimation ​

3.5 Damodaran — Country Risk Premium ​

3.6 Damodaran — Free Resources ​

4. CFI FMVA — DCF Modeling ​

4.1 Giới thiệu ​

4.2 CFI DCF Model Structure ​

4.3 CFI — FCFF Calculation Template ​

4.4 CFI — Working Capital Schedule ​

4.5 CFI — Terminal Value Best Practices ​

4.6 CFI — Sensitivity Analysis Requirements ​

4.7 CFI — Model Audit Checklist ​

So sánh 4 Frameworks ​

Áp dụng Standards vào Buổi 05 ​

Tài liệu tham khảo chi tiết ​

Sách ​

Online Resources ​

Data ​

Điều hướng Buổi 05 ​