Buổi 12: Capstone — Full Valuation Deck

"Valuation is an art — assumptions matter more than formulas."

Đây là buổi học cuối cùng — nơi tất cả kiến thức 11 buổi hội tụ thành 1 sản phẩm duy nhất: một bộ Valuation Deck chuyên nghiệp, chuẩn Investment Banking / Equity Research.

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🎯 Mục tiêu buổi học

1. Hoàn thiện Full Valuation Deck: Industry → Financial Analysis → DCF → Comps → Recommendation
2. Trình bày Investment Recommendation: Buy / Sell / Hold với target price có cơ sở
3. Xây dựng Pitchbook / Investment Memo chuẩn IB/ER format
4. Present & Defend trước lớp — như trình bày trước Investment Committee

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Phần 1: Cấu trúc Valuation Deck

1.1 Tổng quan

Một Valuation Deck hoàn chỉnh gồm 5 phần chính, tương ứng với kiến thức xuyên suốt khóa học:

#	Phần	Nội dung	Buổi liên quan
1	Executive Summary	1-page: Recommendation, Target Price, Key Metrics	Buổi 1 (framework)
2	Industry & Company Overview	Market size, competitive landscape, business model	Buổi 6 (Porter's)
3	Financial Analysis	Historical performance, ratios, DuPont, red flags	Buổi 2–3
4	Valuation	DCF + Trading Comps + Precedent + Football Field	Buổi 4–8
5	Investment Recommendation	Buy/Sell/Hold, catalysts, risks, target price	Buổi 9, 11

1.2 Detail — 20 Slides

Slide	Nội dung	Tips
1	Cover Page — Company, Analyst, Date, Recommendation	Logo, professional layout
2	Executive Summary — 1-page key metrics + recommendation	Busy slide → tóm tắt tất cả
3	Investment Thesis — 3 bullet points tại sao Buy/Sell	Conviction statement
4–5	Industry Overview — Market size, growth, trends	TAM/SAM/SOM, growth rates
6	Competitive Landscape — Porter's 5 Forces hoặc comp map	Positioning chart
7–8	Company Overview — Business model, segments, management	Revenue breakdown pie chart
9–10	Financial Analysis — Revenue growth, margins, DuPont	Trend charts, waterfall
11	Peer Comparison — Key ratios vs. comps	Spider chart hoặc table
12	Red Flags & Risks — Company-specific + macro risks	Risk matrix
13–14	DCF Valuation — Assumptions, FCFF, WACC, TV, EV	Build-up bridge chart
15	DCF Sensitivity — WACC × g data table	Color-coded table
16	Trading Comps — Peer multiples + implied valuation	EV/EBITDA, P/E ranges
17	Precedent Transactions — M&A deals (if relevant)	Premium analysis
18	Football Field Chart — All methods summary	Horizontal bar chart
19	Target Price & Recommendation — Weighted average, conviction	Clear BUY/SELL/HOLD
20	Appendix — Detailed model, sources, disclaimers	Excel model reference

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Phần 2: Executive Summary — 1 Trang Quan Trọng Nhất

2.1 Template

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  [COMPANY LOGO]       EQUITY RESEARCH           │
│                                                  │
│  Company: FPT Corporation (HOSE: FPT)            │
│  Sector: Technology / IT Services                │
│  Current Price: 95,000 VND                       │
│  Target Price: 118,000 VND                       │
│  Recommendation: ██ BUY ██  Upside: +24%         │
│  Date: January 2025                              │
│                                                  │
│  ┌────────────────────────────────────────────┐  │
│  │ Key Metrics          FY2023    FY2024E     │  │
│  │ Revenue (tỷ VND)     52,349    62,000      │  │
│  │ EBITDA Margin         16.2%     17.5%      │  │
│  │ Net Income            6,497     8,200      │  │
│  │ EPS (VND)             4,710     5,950      │  │
│  │ P/E (x)               20.2x     16.0x     │  │
│  │ EV/EBITDA (x)          13.5x     11.2x    │  │
│  │ ROE                    24.8%     26.1%     │  │
│  │ FCF Yield               3.2%      4.1%    │  │
│  └────────────────────────────────────────────┘  │
│                                                  │
│  Investment Thesis:                              │
│  1. FPT Software tăng trưởng 25%+ YoY          │
│  2. AI/DX demand → margin expansion              │
│  3. Undervalued vs. regional IT peers            │
│                                                  │
│  Key Risks:                                      │
│  1. FX risk (USD/JPY → VND)                     │
│  2. Talent retention in competitive market        │
│  3. Geopolitical risk (Japan/US clients)         │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

2.2 Nguyên tắc Executive Summary

Nguyên tắc	Chi tiết
1 trang duy nhất	Người đọc (PM, CIO) chỉ đọc trang này nếu bận
Conviction rõ ràng	BUY/SELL/HOLD + Target Price + Upside %
3 bullets thesis	Tại sao Buy? Maximum 3 lý do, mỗi lý do 1 câu
Key metrics table	Historical + Forward estimates
Risk acknowledgment	Cho thấy bạn đã consider downside

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Phần 3: Financial Analysis Section

3.1 Kết nối Buổi 2–3

Phần này tổng hợp kỹ năng từ Buổi 2 (BCTC) và Buổi 3 (Ratio Analysis):

Revenue Analysis:

$$\text{Revenue Growth}=\frac{Revenu{e}_t-Revenu{e}_{t-1}}{Revenu{e}_{t-1}}$$

Segment	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	CAGR
FPT Software	18,550	22,834	28,042	23.0%
FPT Telecom	14,236	15,890	17,012	9.3%
FPT Education	3,200	4,150	5,495	31.1%
Other	1,500	1,600	1,800	9.5%
Total	37,486	44,474	52,349	17.9%

DuPont Analysis (Buổi 3):

$$ROE=\underset{12.4\mathrm{\%}}{\underbrace{\text{Net Margin}}}\times \underset{0.85x}{\underbrace{\text{Asset Turnover}}}\times \underset{2.35x}{\underbrace{\text{Equity Multiplier}}}=24.8\mathrm{\%}$$

Key Observations:

• Margin driver chính: FPT Software (margin ~18%) growing faster than lower-margin segments
• Leverage stable — không dùng đòn bẩy để boost ROE
• Efficiency improving — asset turnover tăng nhờ asset-light IT model

3.2 Red Flags Check

Indicator	Status	Comment
Revenue vs CFO growth	🟢 OK	CFO growth > Revenue growth
DSO trend	🟢 OK	DSO stable ~65 days
Inventory build-up	🟢 N/A	IT service — no inventory
D/E ratio trend	🟢 OK	D/E = 1.35x, stable
Auditor opinion	🟢 Clean	Big 4 auditor
Related party transactions	🟡 Watch	FPT Group inter-company transactions

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Phần 4: Valuation Section

4.1 DCF — Kết nối Buổi 5, 8, 10

FCFF Projection (Buổi 5):

$$FCFF=EBIT(1-t)+D\mathrm{\&}A-CapEx-\mathrm{\Delta }WC$$

Item	FY2024E	FY2025E	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E
Revenue	62,000	73,160	85,397	98,207	111,956
EBIT	8,370	10,249	12,309	14,497	16,794
EBIT(1-t)	6,696	8,199	9,847	11,598	13,435
+ D&A	2,480	2,926	3,416	3,929	4,478
− CapEx	(3,100)	(3,658)	(4,270)	(4,910)	(5,598)
− ΔWC	(930)	(1,097)	(1,281)	(1,472)	(1,679)
FCFF	5,146	6,370	7,712	9,145	10,636

WACC (Buổi 8):

$$WACC=\frac{E}{V}\times K_e+\frac{D}{V}\times K_d\times (1-t)$$

Component	Value	Source
Risk-free Rate ($R_f$)	4.5%	TPCP VN 10 năm
Beta ($\beta$)	0.95	Regression 60 months vs VN-Index
Market Risk Premium	8.0%	Damodaran VN ERP
Cost of Equity ($K_e$)	12.1%	CAPM
Cost of Debt ($K_d$)	7.5%	Interest expense / Total debt
Tax Rate (t)	20%	Effective tax rate
D/V	35%	Market value weights
E/V	65%	Market value weights
WACC	9.97%	≈ 10.0%

Terminal Value:

$$TV=\frac{FCF{F}_{2028}\times (1+g)}{WACC-g}=\frac{10,636\times 1.03}{0.10-0.03}=156,473\text{ tỷ VND}$$

Enterprise Value:

$$EV=\sum _{t=1}^5\frac{FCF{F}_t}{(1+WACC{)}^t}+\frac{TV}{(1+WACC{)}^5}$$

Item	Value (tỷ VND)
PV of FCFF (5 years)	29,854
PV of Terminal Value	97,133
Enterprise Value	126,987
− Net Debt	(12,500)
Equity Value	114,487
Shares Outstanding (triệu)	1,378
Price per Share	83,080 VND

4.2 Sensitivity Table (Buổi 5)

WACC × Terminal Growth Rate → Price per Share (VND)

WACC ↓ \ g →	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
8.5%	98,200	107,500	118,900	133,200	151,800
9.0%	91,100	99,000	108,600	120,500	135,800
9.5%	84,800	91,700	99,800	109,900	122,500
10.0%	79,300	85,300	92,300	100,800	111,400
10.5%	74,400	79,700	85,800	93,100	102,000

4.3 Trading Comps (Buổi 6)

Company	Country	EV/EBITDA	P/E	Revenue Growth
Infosys	India 🇮🇳	18.5x	25.2x	12%
TCS	India 🇮🇳	20.1x	28.5x	9%
Samsung SDS	Korea 🇰🇷	12.8x	18.3x	8%
NTT Data	Japan 🇯🇵	14.2x	22.1x	7%
Median		16.4x	23.7x	10%
FPT	VN 🇻🇳	13.5x	20.2x	18%

Implied Valuation (Comps):

Method	Multiple	FPT Metric	Implied EV/Equity	Per Share
EV/EBITDA	16.4x	10,850 tỷ	129,940 tỷ	85,200 VND
P/E	23.7x	6,497 tỷ	154,000 tỷ	111,800 VND

→ FPT đang giao dịch ở discount vs. regional peers mặc dù growth cao hơn.

4.4 Football Field Chart

Method              ├──────── Range ────────┤
                    60K    80K   100K  120K  140K  VND/share

52-Week Range       │▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓│
                    72,000 ─── 105,000

DCF                     │▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓│
                        79,300 ──── 118,900

Trading Comps              │▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓│
                           85,200 ── 111,800

Precedent (est.)              │▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓│
                              90,000 ── 125,000

                    ──────────────────────────
Current Price: 95,000     ▲
Target Price: 118,000         ▲

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Phần 5: Investment Recommendation

5.1 Target Price Derivation

Method	Weight	Implied Price	Weighted
DCF (Base Case)	50%	92,300	46,150
DCF (Bull Case)	10%	118,900	11,890
Trading Comps (EV/EBITDA)	25%	85,200	21,300
Trading Comps (P/E)	15%	111,800	16,770
Weighted Target Price	100%		96,110 VND

Rounded & adjusted for catalysts: Target Price = 118,000 VND

Lưu ý: Target price cao hơn weighted average do catalyst upside (AI demand, new markets).

5.2 Recommendation

Element	Detail
Recommendation	BUY 🟢
Current Price	95,000 VND
Target Price	118,000 VND
Upside	+24.2%
Time Horizon	12 tháng
Conviction	High

5.3 Catalysts (Chất xúc tác)

#	Catalyst	Timeline	Impact
1	AI/DX contracts từ Japan/US	Q2-Q3 2025	Revenue acceleration
2	FPT Semiconductor spin-off potential	2025–2026	Unlock value
3	Vietnam "Next China+1" manufacturing trend	Ongoing	Structural tailwind
4	Margin expansion từ automation	FY2025	+100-150bps margin

5.4 Key Risks

#	Risk	Probability	Impact	Mitigation
1	FX depreciation VND	Medium	High	Natural hedge qua USD revenue
2	Japan recession → IT spending cut	Low	High	Diversify US/EU clients
3	Talent attrition	Medium	Medium	Stock options, training investment
4	Regulatory (data privacy)	Low	Medium	Compliance team in place

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Phần 6: Presentation Skills — Pitch 15 phút

6.1 Storytelling Framework

1. HOOK (1 phút)
   "FPT đang giao dịch ở PE 20x
    trong khi Infosys ở 25x — với growth gấp đôi."

2. CONTEXT (3 phút)
   Industry overview → Company positioning → Why now?

3. ANALYSIS (5 phút)
   Financial performance → Valuation (DCF + Comps)
   → Football Field → Target Price

4. RECOMMENDATION (3 phút)
   BUY at 95,000 → Target 118,000 → +24% upside
   3 catalysts + 4 risks

5. Q&A PREP (3 phút)
   Anticipate: "What's your bear case?"
   "Why not use EV/Revenue?" "What if WACC is 12%?"

6.2 Q&A Preparation

Câu hỏi thường gặp	Gợi ý trả lời
"What's your bear case?"	"Bear case: $g=2\mathrm{\%}$, WACC 11% → 74,400 VND, −22% downside"
"Why BUY not HOLD?"	"24% upside > 15% hurdle rate, 3 clear catalysts within 12 months"
"WACC quá thấp?"	"10% WACC cho VN tech là reasonable — Damodaran VN ERP 8% + Rf 4.5% − β adjustment"
"Terminal value quá lớn?"	"TV = 77% EV, within range (60–80%). Mitigation: cross-check Exit Multiple 13x EBITDA → similar result"
"Tại sao P/E không dùng làm primary?"	"P/E bị distort bởi capital structure. EV/EBITDA capital-structure neutral → better for cross-border comp"

6.3 Common Mistakes

Sai lầm	Cách tránh
Đọc slide word-by-word	Thuộc flow, chỉ glance slide cho data
Quá nhiều chi tiết model	Focus kết quả & insight, không giải thích từng ô Excel
Không có conviction	Nói rõ BUY/SELL, đừng nói "có thể"
Ignore risks	Acknowledge risks → show mitigation
Quá dài	Timer: strict 15 phút

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Tổng kết — Hành trình 12 buổi

Buổi	Kiến thức	Ứng dụng trong Deck
1	Corporate Finance Overview	Framework tư duy
2	Financial Statements & IFRS	Đọc BCTC, IFRS compliance
3	Ratio Analysis & DuPont	Financial Analysis section
4	Time Value of Money	NPV, IRR concepts
5	DCF Valuation	Core valuation method
6	Comparable & Precedent	Trading comps + Football Field
7	Capital Structure	D/E analysis, leverage impact
8	WACC & Cost of Capital	Discount rate cho DCF
9	M&A & Restructuring	Precedent transactions
10	Financial Modeling	3-Statement Model foundation
11	Risk Management	Risk section + hedging
12	Capstone	Tất cả hội tụ → Valuation Deck

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📚 Từ khóa chính

Tiếng Việt	English	Giải thích
Bộ định giá hoàn chỉnh	Valuation Deck	Tài liệu tổng hợp phân tích & định giá
Khuyến nghị đầu tư	Investment Recommendation	Buy / Sell / Hold + Target Price
Giá mục tiêu	Target Price	Giá cổ phiếu kỳ vọng trong 12 tháng
Sách quảng bá	Pitchbook	Tài liệu IB dùng trong M&A advisory
Chất xúc tác	Catalysts	Sự kiện thúc đẩy giá CP đến target
Biểu đồ sân bóng	Football Field Chart	Tổng hợp range giá trị nhiều phương pháp

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🧭 Điều hướng

Nội dung	Link
📝 Blog	Từ sinh viên đến Analyst
🧠 Case Study	Goldman Sachs ER · FPT Deck · CFA Research Challenge
🏆 Tiêu chuẩn	CFA Research Challenge · IBCS · ER Format
🛠 Workshop	Hoàn thiện Valuation Deck
🎮 Mini Game	Pitch Competition