🛠 Workshop Buổi 7: Capital Structure Optimizer

📋 Thông tin Workshop

Thông tin	Chi tiết
Thời gian	90–120 phút
Công cụ	Excel / Google Sheets
Input	BCTC 5 năm: Vinamilk (VNM), Hòa Phát (HPG), VietJet (VJC)
Output	Capital Structure Dashboard + Leverage Effect Chart + WACC Sensitivity + HPG Simulation
Kỹ năng	D/E analysis, Interest Coverage, WACC calculation, Leverage effect on ROE, Scenario simulation
Tích lũy	Tiếp nối Buổi 3 (Ratios) & Buổi 5 (WACC) → input cho Buổi 8 (Valuation)
Điểm	15 điểm workshop

🎯 Mục tiêu

1. Xây dựng Capital Structure Dashboard cho 3 công ty VN (VNM, HPG, VJC) qua 5 năm
2. Tính D/E, Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage và xác định debt capacity
3. Phân tích leverage effect lên ROE: $\text{ROE}=\text{ROA}+(\text{ROA}-K_d)\times \frac{D}{E}$
4. Simulation: Nếu HPG tăng D/E lên 1.5x, WACC và ROE thay đổi thế nào?

📥 Chuẩn bị

• [ ] BCTC 5 năm VNM, HPG, VJC (download hoặc từ workshops trước)
• [ ] File CorporateFinance_Model.xlsx — thêm sheet CapStructure_Dashboard
• [ ] Nắm công thức: M&M Prop II, WACC, Leverage Effect

---

📝 Bước 1: Input Data — 3 công ty × 5 năm

Layout Sheet CapStructure_Input

Vinamilk (VNM) — tỷ VND

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	VNM	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E
2	Revenue	59,600	60,100	59,900	58,500	61,200
3	EBIT	10,800	10,600	10,500	9,800	10,800
4	EBITDA	12,500	12,400	12,200	11,600	12,600
5	Net Income	8,300	8,600	8,500	7,800	8,200
6	Interest Expense	200	210	190	170	180
7	Total Assets	48,400	51,200	52,300	53,500	54,700
8	Total Equity	32,500	34,800	35,800	37,200	39,000
9	Total Debt	4,600	5,000	5,200	4,800	4,500
10	Cash	1,900	2,500	2,800	3,200	3,500
11	Tax Rate	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%

Hòa Phát (HPG) — tỷ VND

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	HPG	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E
2	Revenue	91,300	150,500	142,000	120,000	135,000
3	EBIT	16,800	45,000	12,000	9,500	13,000
4	EBITDA	21,000	50,500	17,500	15,000	18,500
5	Net Income	12,200	34,500	8,300	6,800	9,000
6	Interest Expense	2,800	3,200	4,500	3,800	3,200
7	Total Assets	118,000	165,000	175,000	170,000	178,000
8	Total Equity	55,000	78,000	82,000	85,000	90,000
9	Total Debt	38,000	55,000	62,000	52,000	50,000
10	Cash	8,500	18,000	12,000	15,000	17,000
11	Tax Rate	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%

VietJet Air (VJC) — tỷ VND

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	VJC	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E
2	Revenue	18,200	12,500	41,700	55,500	62,000
3	EBIT	−2,500	−5,200	1,800	3,200	4,500
4	EBITDA	−500	−3,000	4,500	6,200	7,800
5	Net Income	−1,800	−3,200	800	1,500	2,200
6	Interest Expense	1,200	1,500	1,800	1,600	1,400
7	Total Assets	44,200	42,500	48,500	55,200	60,000
8	Total Equity	12,500	9,800	10,500	11,800	13,500
9	Total Debt	18,000	20,500	22,000	24,500	25,000
10	Cash	4,200	2,800	5,200	7,000	8,500
11	Tax Rate	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%

---

📝 Bước 2: Capital Structure Metrics

Formulas

D/E              = Total_Debt / Total_Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA  = (Total_Debt - Cash) / EBITDA
Interest Coverage = EBIT / Interest_Expense
Debt/Capital     = Total_Debt / (Total_Debt + Total_Equity)
Net Debt/Equity  = (Total_Debt - Cash) / Total_Equity

Expected Output — VNM

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E	Trend
D/E	0.14x	0.14x	0.15x	0.13x	0.12x	→ ↓
Net Debt/EBITDA	0.22x	0.20x	0.20x	0.14x	0.08x	↓
Interest Coverage	54.0x	50.5x	55.3x	57.6x	60.0x	↑
Debt/Capital	12.4%	12.6%	12.7%	11.4%	10.3%	↓

Expected Output — HPG

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E	Trend
D/E	0.69x	0.71x	0.76x	0.61x	0.56x	↑↓
Net Debt/EBITDA	1.40x	0.73x	2.86x	2.47x	1.78x	Volatile
Interest Coverage	6.0x	14.1x	2.7x	2.5x	4.1x	Volatile
Debt/Capital	40.9%	41.4%	43.1%	38.0%	35.7%	↑↓

Expected Output — VJC

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E	Trend
D/E	1.44x	2.09x	2.10x	2.08x	1.85x	↑→↓
Net Debt/EBITDA	Neg EBITDA	Neg EBITDA	3.73x	2.82x	2.12x	Improving
Interest Coverage	−2.1x	−3.5x	1.0x	2.0x	3.2x	Improving
Debt/Capital	59.0%	67.7%	67.7%	67.5%	64.9%	High but ↓

---

📝 Bước 3: Leverage Effect on ROE

Công thức

$$\text{ROE}=\text{ROA}+(\text{ROA}-K_d)\times \frac{D}{E}$$

Trong đó:

• $\text{ROA}=\frac{\text{EBIT}\times (1-t)}{\text{Total Assets}}$
• $K_d=\frac{\text{Interest Expense}}{\text{Total Debt}}$ (effective cost of debt)

Tính toán — HPG 2024E

ROA = EBIT × (1-t) / Assets = 13,000 × 0.8 / 178,000 = 5.84%
Kd  = Interest / Debt        = 3,200 / 50,000         = 6.40%
D/E = 50,000 / 90,000        = 0.556x

ROE = 5.84% + (5.84% - 6.40%) × 0.556
    = 5.84% + (-0.56%) × 0.556
    = 5.84% - 0.31%
    = 5.53%

Actual ROE = NI / Equity = 9,000 / 90,000 = 10.0%

Insight: Khi dùng after-tax ROA (NOPAT-based), HPG 2024E: ROA ≈ Kd → leverage effect gần zero. ROE thực tế cao hơn do khác biệt accounting (below-EBIT items, tax specifics).

So sánh 3 công ty — Leverage Effect

Metric	VNM	HPG	VJC
ROA (after-tax)	15.8%	5.8%	6.0%
Kd (effective)	4.0%	6.4%	5.6%
ROA − Kd	+11.8%	−0.6%	+0.4%
D/E	0.12x	0.56x	1.85x
Leverage boost	+1.4%	−0.3%	+0.7%
ROE	17.2%	5.5%	6.7%

Key Insight:

• VNM: ROA >> Kd → leverage adds value, nhưng D/E quá thấp → chưa tận dụng hết tax shield
• HPG: ROA ≈ Kd → leverage neutral/negative → cyclical bottom, vay thêm = danger
• VJC: ROA > Kd (nhẹ) → leverage adds slight value, nhưng D/E 1.85x trong ngành biến động = risky

---

📝 Bước 4: WACC Sensitivity to Capital Structure

Công thức WACC

$$\text{WACC}=\frac{E}{V}\times K_e+\frac{D}{V}\times K_d\times (1-t)$$

Tính WACC — HPG 2024E (Base Case)

Ke (assumed CAPM)      = 14.0% (Rf 3% + β×1.3 × ERP 8.5%)
Kd (after-tax)         = 6.4% × (1 - 20%) = 5.12%
D/V = D/(D+E)          = 50,000 / 140,000 = 35.7%
E/V                     = 64.3%

WACC = 64.3% × 14.0% + 35.7% × 5.12% = 9.00% + 1.83% = 10.83%

WACC Sensitivity Table — HPG

D/E	D/V	E/V	Kd(1−t)	Ke*	WACC
0.0x	0%	100%	5.12%	12.0%	12.00%
0.3x	23%	77%	5.12%	13.0%	11.19%
0.56x	36%	64%	5.12%	14.0%	10.83%
1.0x	50%	50%	5.52%	15.5%	10.51%
1.5x	60%	40%	6.24%	17.5%	10.74%
2.0x	67%	33%	7.20%	20.0%	11.42%
3.0x	75%	25%	8.80%	25.0%	12.85%

Ke tăng theo M&M Prop II khi leverage tăng; Kd tăng khi credit risk tăng

Optimal D/E ≈ 1.0x (WACC thấp nhất ~10.51%). HPG hiện tại D/E 0.56x → có room tăng leverage nhẹ.

⚠️ Lưu ý: WACC sensitivity rất nhạy cảm với giả định Ke & Kd. Thay đổi assumptions → optimal D/E thay đổi.

---

📝 Bước 5: Simulation — HPG tăng D/E lên 1.5x

Scenario

HPG vay thêm 45,000 tỷ VND để mở rộng nhà máy thép Dung Quất giai đoạn 3.

Current D/E: 0.56x (Debt 50,000; Equity 90,000)
New Debt:    50,000 + 45,000 = 95,000 tỷ
New D/E:     95,000 / 90,000 = 1.056x → round to ~1.0x
→ If use proceeds to buy back equity:
   New Equity = 90,000 - 45,000 = 45,000
   New D/E = 95,000 / 45,000 = 2.11x → quá cao
→ If invest in new assets (expand):
   New Assets = 178,000 + 45,000 = 223,000
   Equity unchanged = 90,000
   New D/E = 95,000 / 90,000 = 1.056x

Scenario Analysis (D/E = 1.5x via expansion + some buyback)

Metric	Current (D/E 0.56x)	Scenario (D/E 1.5x)	Change
Total Debt	50,000	95,000	+45,000
Equity	90,000	63,333*	−26,667
Interest Expense	3,200	7,600	+4,400
Tax Shield	640	1,520	+880
Interest Coverage	4.1x	1.7x	↓↓
Debt/EBITDA	1.78x	4.22x	↑↑
Credit Rating (est.)	BBB	BB/BB−	↓↓

Assuming: New Debt = 95,000; to reach D/E 1.5x → Equity = 95,000/1.5 = 63,333

ROE Impact (Scenario: Nếu giá thép phục hồi → EBIT tăng 30%)

Scenario	EBIT	ROA	ROE (D/E 0.56x)	ROE (D/E 1.5x)
Bear (−20%)	10,400	4.7%	4.3%	2.1% ❌
Base	13,000	5.8%	5.5%	5.0% →
Bull (+30%)	16,900	7.6%	7.3%	9.4% ✅
Super Bull (+60%)	20,800	9.4%	9.0%	13.4% 🚀

Insight: Với D/E 1.5x, ROE amplified cả chiều lên lẫn chiều xuống:

• Bull market: ROE 1.5x tốt hơn 0.56x
• Bear market: ROE 1.5x tệ hơn nhiều (thậm chí gần 0)
• Interest Coverage giảm xuống 1.7x = danger zone → credit downgrade → cost of debt tăng → vicious cycle

Kết luận Simulation

Factor	Assessment
Tax Shield thêm	+880 tỷ/năm ✅
Interest Coverage	1.7x — dưới comfort level ❌
Credit Rating	BB/BB− — junk territory ❌
ROE volatility	Tăng đáng kể ⚠️
Financial distress risk	Cao — cyclical industry + high leverage ❌
Recommendation	Không nên tăng D/E lên 1.5x. Optimal cho HPG ≈ 0.8–1.0x

---

⚠️ Lỗi thường gặp

#	Lỗi	Hậu quả	Cách tránh
1	Dùng book D/E thay vì market D/E cho WACC	WACC sai	WACC dùng market weights
2	Quên adjust Kd for tax	WACC cao hơn thực tế	Luôn dùng Kd × (1−t)
3	Giữ Ke, Kd cố định khi D/E thay đổi	WACC sensitivity sai	Ke tăng theo M&M Prop II, Kd tăng theo credit risk
4	Ignore industry context	Optimal D/E sai	Airline D/E 1.5x ≠ Utility D/E 1.5x
5	Nhìn ROE tăng nhờ leverage mà quên risk	Underestimate risk	Luôn check Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA

---

📏 Rubric

Tiêu chí	Xuất sắc (13-15)	Khá (10-12)	Đạt (7-9)	Chưa đạt (<7)
Metric accuracy	Tất cả metrics đúng cho 3 công ty	2 công ty đúng	1 công ty đúng	Sai nhiều
Leverage Effect	ROE decomposition + insight 3 firms	2 firms + insight	Tính ROE 1 firm	Không tính
WACC Sensitivity	Full table + optimal D/E	Partial table	Tính WACC base	Không
HPG Simulation	Full scenario + recommendation	Scenario + partial	Tính 1 scenario	Không
Presentation	Color-coded, charts, professional	Clean, readable	Acceptable	Messy

---

🔗 Xem thêm Buổi 7

• 📘 Bài học chính — Cấu trúc Vốn: M&M, Trade-off & Pecking Order
• 📝 Blog — Apple giữ $200B cash & bài học cấu trúc vốn
• 🧠 Case Study — Apple Buyback, Berkshire & Vietnam Airlines
• 🏆 Tiêu chuẩn — M&M, Trade-off, Pecking Order Framework
• 🎮 Mini Game — Capital Structure Simulator