Standards & Frameworks — Buổi 09: M&A & Restructuring

"The purpose of an acquisition is to create value, not to grow for growth's sake." — McKinsey & Company

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Tổng quan các Frameworks

Buổi 09 tham chiếu 4 frameworks chuyên nghiệp cho M&A & Restructuring:

#	Framework	Tổ chức	Ứng dụng chính
1	CFA Level II — Mergers, Acquisitions & Corporate Restructuring	CFA Institute	Exam & Professional Practice
2	Rosenbaum & Pearl — M&A Framework	Investment Banking Textbook	IB Analyst Training
3	McKinsey M&A Value Creation Framework	McKinsey & Company	Consulting & Advisory
4	CFA Institute — Accretion/Dilution & LBO	CFA Institute	Advanced M&A Analysis

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1. CFA Level II — Mergers, Acquisitions & Corporate Restructuring

1.1 Vị trí trong CFA Curriculum

Level	Topic	Weight	Focus
I	Corporate Issuers	6–8%	Basic concepts: M&A motivations, types
II	Corporate Issuers: M&A	5–8%	Valuation, Synergies, Accretion/Dilution, Takeover defenses
III	Equity Portfolio Mgmt	5–10%	M&A as event-driven strategy

1.2 CFA — M&A Classification

CFA Institute phân loại M&A theo nhiều chiều:

Theo hình thức hợp nhất:

Type	Definition	CFA Focus
Statutory Merger	Target ceases to exist, absorbed into acquirer	Phổ biến nhất
Subsidiary Merger	Target becomes subsidiary of acquirer	Giữ brand/operations
Consolidation	Cả hai công ty cũ biến mất, tạo entity mới	Merger of equals

Theo mối quan hệ:

Type	CFA Definition	Ví dụ
Horizontal	Same industry, same stage of value chain	Exxon + Mobil
Vertical	Same industry, different stage	Amazon + Whole Foods
Conglomerate	Unrelated industries	Berkshire + GEICO

1.3 CFA — M&A Motivations (Chính thức)

CFA Curriculum liệt kê các motivation cho M&A:

Motivation	CFA Classification
Synergies (Revenue + Cost)	Value-creating
Growth (Faster than organic)	Value-creating if synergies > premium
Increasing market power	Value-creating (nhưng anti-trust risk)
Acquiring unique capabilities	Value-creating
Diversification	Questionable — shareholders tự diversify được
Bootstrapping EPS	NOT value-creating — financial engineering only
Manager's personal incentives	Value-destroying (agency problem)
Tax benefits	Value-creating in specific cases
Unlocking hidden value	Via restructuring (spin-offs, etc.)

1.4 CFA — Takeover Defenses

CFA Level II yêu cầu hiểu các defense mechanisms:

Pre-offer defenses:

Defense	Cơ chế
Poison Pill (Shareholder Rights Plan)	Cho cổ đông hiện hữu mua thêm cổ phiếu giá rẻ khi hostile bid
Staggered Board	Board bầu cuốn chiếu → hostile bidder không thể thay toàn bộ board ngay
Supermajority Voting	Cần >67% hoặc >80% approval cho M&A
Restricted Voting Rights	Hạn chế quyền vote của new large shareholders
Golden Parachute	Gói severance lớn cho management → tăng acquisition cost

Post-offer defenses:

Defense	Cơ chế
"Just say no"	Board reject offer
Litigation	Kiện hostile bidder (antitrust, disclosure violations)
Greenmail	Mua lại shares từ hostile bidder với premium (controversial)
White Knight	Tìm friendly acquirer thay thế
White Squire	Bán block shares cho ally (không mua toàn bộ)
Crown Jewel Defense	Bán/tách tài sản mà bidder muốn nhất
Pac-Man Defense	Counter-bid mua lại hostile bidder (hiếm)

1.5 CFA — Target Company Valuation

CFA yêu cầu sử dụng multiple approaches:

$$\boxed{{\displaystyle V_{Target}=V_{Standalone}+V_{Synergies}}}$$

Method	Output	Application
DCF	Intrinsic EV	Floor valuation
Comparable Company	Relative EV (EV/EBITDA, P/E)	Market reference
Comparable Transaction	Implied premium & multiples	Historical M&A reference

CFA — Synergy Value Formula:

$$V_{Synergies}=\sum _{t=1}^n\frac{S_t-I{C}_t}{(1+r{)}^t}$$

Trong đó:

• $S_t$ = Gross synergies at time $t$
• $I{C}_t$ = Integration costs at time $t$
• $r$ = WACC (of combined entity)

1.6 CFA — Accretion/Dilution Framework

CFA Level II framework cho Accretion/Dilution:

Step 1: Pro-forma Earnings

$$E_{pro-forma}=E_{Acquirer}+E_{Target}+S(1-t)-\mathrm{\Delta }I(1-t)$$

Trong đó:

• $S$ = Pre-tax synergies
• $\mathrm{\Delta }I$ = Incremental interest expense (nếu debt-financed) hoặc lost interest income (nếu cash-financed)

Step 2: Pro-forma Shares

Payment Method	New Shares
All Cash	0 (unchanged)
All Stock	$\frac{\text{Offer Price}\times \text{Target Shares}}{\text{Acquirer Share Price}}$
Mixed	Pro-rata

Step 3: Pro-forma EPS

$$EP{S}_{pro-forma}=\frac{E_{pro-forma}}{\text{Acquirer Shares}+\text{New Shares Issued}}$$

Step 4: Accretion/Dilution

$$\mathrm{\%}\text{Accretion (Dilution)}=\frac{EP{S}_{pro-forma}-EP{S}_{Acquirer}}{EP{S}_{Acquirer}}\times 100\mathrm{\%}$$

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2. Rosenbaum & Pearl — Investment Banking M&A Framework

2.1 Nguồn gốc

"Investment Banking: Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions" (Joshua Rosenbaum & Joshua Pearl) — hiện ấn bản thứ 3 — là textbook chuẩn cho mọi IB Analyst training program trên Wall Street.

2.2 M&A Sell-side Process (Rosenbaum & Pearl)

Phase	Activities	Deliverables
Phase 1: Organization & Preparation	Engage bankers, review strategic alternatives, perform valuation	Valuation analysis, CIM (Confidential Information Memorandum)
Phase 2: First Round	Contact buyers, distribute teasers, NDA, deliver CIM	Teaser, CIM, Preliminary bid due date
Phase 3: Second Round	Management presentations, data room access, site visits	Final bids, markup of SPA
Phase 4: Negotiation	Negotiate SPA terms, board approval, regulatory filing	Definitive agreement, fairness opinion
Phase 5: Closing	Regulatory approvals, shareholder vote, closing conditions	Deal close, Day 1 integration

2.3 Rosenbaum & Pearl — Valuation in M&A Context

"Football Field" Valuation:

R&P khuyến cáo present valuation bằng football field chart kết hợp 4 methods:

Method	EV Range	Key Assumption
DCF	$X – $Y	WACC, g, margins
Comparable Companies	$A – $B	Peer multiples
Precedent Transactions	$C – $D	Historical deal multiples
LBO Analysis	$E – $F	PE return threshold (IRR > 20%)

→ Intersection of ranges = reasonable offer price zone.

2.4 Rosenbaum & Pearl — Accretion/Dilution Model

R&P's step-by-step Accretion/Dilution:

1. Acquirer Standalone EPS
    ↓
2. + Target Net Income
    ↓
3. − Foregone Interest on Cash Used (after-tax)
    ↓
4. + Interest Saved on Target Debt Retired (after-tax)
    ↓
5. + Pre-tax Synergies × (1 − Tax Rate)
    ↓
6. − Incremental D&A from Purchase Price Allocation (after-tax)
    ↓
7. ÷ Pro-forma Shares Outstanding
    ↓
8. = Pro-forma EPS
    ↓
9. Compare with Acquirer Standalone EPS → Accretive/Dilutive?

Purchase Price Allocation (PPA) — Quan trọng:

Khi mua target, acquirer phải fair-value tất cả assets & liabilities theo IFRS 3/ASC 805:

Component	Treatment
Tangible assets	Fair value (có thể ≠ book value)
Identifiable intangibles	Customer relationships, technology, brand → amortize
Goodwill	Residual = Purchase Price − Fair Value of Net Assets → test impairment

$$\text{Goodwill}=\text{Purchase Price}-\text{Fair Value of Net Identifiable Assets}$$

→ Incremental D&A from PPA giảm pro-forma EPS → có thể biến accretive deal thành dilutive.

2.5 Rosenbaum & Pearl — LBO Model

LBO model steps:

Step	Hoạt động
1	Tính Purchase Enterprise Value (EV = EBITDA × Entry Multiple)
2	Xây Sources & Uses table
3	Project EBITDA & Free Cash Flow (5 years)
4	Build Debt Schedule (mandatory amortization + cash sweep)
5	Calculate Exit EV (Exit EBITDA × Exit Multiple)
6	Compute Equity Value at Exit = Exit EV − Net Debt
7	Calculate IRR & MoM returns

IRR Formula:

$$\text{Sponsor Equity}\times (1+IRR{)}^n=\text{Equity Value at Exit}$$$$IRR={\left(\frac{\text{Exit Equity}}{\text{Entry Equity}}\right)}^{1/n}-1$$

Minimum IRR thresholds:

PE Fund Type	Target IRR	Target MoM
Large-cap Buyout	20–25%	2.0–2.5x
Mid-market	25–30%	2.5–3.5x
Growth Equity	25–35%	3.0–5.0x
Distressed / Turnaround	30–40%+	3.0–5.0x+

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3. McKinsey — M&A Value Creation Framework

3.1 McKinsey's Core Principle

McKinsey's insight quan trọng nhất về M&A:

"Most acquisitions fail to create value for the acquirer because acquirers overpay."

$$\boxed{{\displaystyle \text{Value Created}=\text{Synergies}-\text{Premium Paid}}}$$

→ Nếu Premium > Synergies → Value destroyed cho acquirer shareholders.

3.2 McKinsey — 6 Rules of M&A Success

#	Rule	Explanation
1	Disciplined strategy	M&A phải phục vụ chiến lược rõ ràng, không mua vì "bored"
2	Programmatic M&A	Nhiều deal nhỏ > 1 deal lớn (success rate cao hơn)
3	Clear synergy targets	Quantify synergies cụ thể, plan from Day 1
4	Don't overpay	Valuation discipline — walk away nếu giá quá cao
5	Integrate quickly	100-day plan, dedicated PMI team
6	Retain key talent	Golden handcuffs, clear communication

3.3 McKinsey — Programmatic M&A vs Big-Deal M&A

McKinsey research (2024) so sánh performance:

Strategy	% Deals tạo value	Excess TRS (vs industry)
Programmatic (nhiều deal nhỏ, thematic)	60–65%	+2.0% p.a.
Large Deal (1–2 mega-deals)	35–40%	+0.5% p.a.
Selective (vài deal tactical)	45–50%	+1.0% p.a.
Organic only (không M&A)	N/A	−0.5% p.a.

→ Programmatic M&A (như Masan, Danaher, Constellation Software) outperform consistently.

3.4 McKinsey — Post-Merger Integration (PMI)

Phase	Timeline	Key Activities
Pre-close planning	Announce → Close	Integration Management Office (IMO), Day 1 plan
Day 1	Closing date	Communication to employees, customers, suppliers
First 100 days	Day 1 → Day 100	Quick wins, organizational design, synergy tracking
Year 1	Day 100 → Year 1	Full integration execution, IT migration, culture alignment
Year 2+	Beyond Year 1	Revenue synergies, optimization, ongoing tracking

PMI success metrics:

KPI	Target
Synergy realization (% of target)	≥ 80% by Year 2
Key talent retention	≥ 90%
Customer retention	≥ 95%
Day 1 operational continuity	100%
Integration budget adherence	≤ 110% of plan

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4. CFA — LBO & Restructuring Extended Framework

4.1 LBO Returns Decomposition (CFA Framework)

CFA Level II decomposes LBO returns:

$$\boxed{{\displaystyle MoM=\frac{E{V}_{exit}-D_{exit}}{E_0}=\frac{EBITD{A}_{exit}\times M_{exit}-D_{exit}}{E_0}}}$$

Return Driver	Lever
EBITDA growth	Organic growth + operational improvement
Multiple expansion	$M_{exit}>M_{entry}$
Debt paydown	$D_{exit}<D_{entry}$ (using FCF)

Rule of 72 for IRR:

$$\text{Holding Period}\approx \frac{72}{IRR\mathrm{\%}}$$

→ Nếu target IRR = 24%, cần 3 năm để double equity.

4.2 CFA — Restructuring

CFA Level II covers restructuring motivations:

Restructuring Type	When to Use
Spin-off	Conglomerate discount, pure-play investor demand
Divestiture	Non-core asset, needs capital, regulatory requirement
Equity Carve-out	Raise capital while retaining control
Leveraged Recap	Return cash to shareholders, deter hostile bid

Value Creation Logic:

$$V_{sum-of-parts}>V_{conglomerate}$$$$\iff \text{Conglomerate Discount exists}$$$$\Rightarrow \text{Restructuring unlocks hidden value}$$

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Tổng hợp: Áp dụng Frameworks vào Buổi 09

Topic	CFA	Rosenbaum & Pearl	McKinsey
M&A Types	Statutory, Subsidiary, Consolidation	Buy-side vs Sell-side process	Strategic vs Financial buyer
Valuation	DCF + Comps + Precedent	Football field, 4-method	Value = Standalone + Synergies
Synergies	Revenue + Cost formula	Integration in Accretion model	6 Rules, PMI framework
Accretion/Dilution	Step-by-step with PPA	Detailed with D&A adjustment	Not primary focus
LBO	Returns decomposition	Full model (Sources & Uses → IRR)	Less focus
Restructuring	Spin-off, Carve-out types	Not primary focus	Programmatic M&A vs organic
Defenses	Poison pill, White Knight, etc.	Sell-side advisory context	Not primary focus

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Tài liệu tham khảo

Sách

1. CFA Institute — Corporate Issuers: Mergers, Acquisitions, and Corporate Restructuring (Level II, 2025)
2. Rosenbaum, J. & Pearl, J. — Investment Banking: Valuation, LBOs, M&A (3rd Ed., Wiley)
3. McKinsey & Company — Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (7th Ed., Chapter 22–25: M&A)
4. DePamphilis, D. — Mergers, Acquisitions, and Other Restructuring Activities (10th Ed., Academic Press)
5. Damodaran, A. — The Dark Side of Valuation (3rd Ed., Pearson)

Online Resources

6. McKinsey — M&A Practices: How the best acquirers create value (mckinsey.com)
7. CFA Institute — M&A and Corporate Restructuring (cfainstitute.org)
8. Rosenbaum & Pearl — investmentbankingbook.com
9. Damodaran — Acquisition Valuation lecture notes (pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/)

Research

10. McKinsey (2024) — Grow, expand, and accelerate: The power of programmatic M&A
11. BCG (2023) — The 2023 M&A Report: Resilience in a Turbulent Market
12. Bain & Company — Global M&A Report 2024

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Điều hướng Buổi 09

Tài liệu	Mô tả
📖 Bài giảng chính	Nội dung lý thuyết M&A & Restructuring đầy đủ
📝 Blog	$68.7B: Bên trong thương vụ Microsoft–Activision
📊 Case Study	Microsoft–Activision, Masan buy & build, Dell LBO
📚 Standards	CFA, Rosenbaum & Pearl, McKinsey frameworks
🔧 Workshop	M&A Analysis: Premium, Accretion/Dilution, Synergies
🎮 Game	Deal or No Deal — 8 thương vụ M&A thực tế