Workshop — Buổi 09: M&A Analysis — Microsoft–Activision

"Investment banking is 80% modeling and 20% judgment. M&A is where both meet."

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Mục tiêu Workshop

Xây dựng M&A Analysis hoàn chỉnh cho thương vụ Microsoft–Activision, bao gồm:

Step	Nội dung	Output
1	Premium Analysis — Implied premium & multiples	Premium table
2	Accretion/Dilution Model — Pro-forma EPS	Accretion/Dilution output
3	Synergies Analysis — Revenue + Cost + Payback	Synergy schedule
4	Sensitivity Analysis — Premium × Synergies	Data table

Thời gian: 90 phút Công cụ: Microsoft Excel / Google Sheets Dữ liệu: Provided below

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Bước 0 — Setup Excel Workbook

Tab Structure

Tab	Color	Nội dung
Cover	🔵	Tên project, ngày, tác giả
Deal Summary	🟢	Key deal terms, timeline
Premium	🟡	Premium analysis, implied multiples
AccDil	🔴	Accretion/Dilution model
Synergies	🟠	Revenue + Cost synergies schedule
Sensitivity	🟣	Data Tables
Output	⚫	Summary, recommendation

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Bước 1 — Deal Summary & Data Input

1.1 Acquirer: Microsoft (FY2022)

Metric	Value	Cell Reference
Share Price (pre-announce)	$310	B3
Diluted Shares Outstanding	7,500M	B4
Market Cap	$2,325B	B5 (=B3×B4)
Revenue	$198.3B	B6
EBITDA	$97.0B	B7
Net Income	$72.7B	B8
EPS (Diluted)	$9.65	B9 (=B8/B4×1000)
P/E	32.1x	B10 (=B3/B9)
Cash on Balance Sheet	$130.3B	B11
Total Debt	$47.0B	B12
Tax Rate	18%	B13
Pre-tax yield on cash	3.0%	B14

1.2 Target: Activision Blizzard (FY2021)

Metric	Value	Cell Reference
Undisturbed Share Price	$65.39	D3
Diluted Shares Outstanding	780M	D4
Market Cap (undisturbed)	$51.0B	D5 (=D3×D4)
Revenue	$8.8B	D6
EBITDA	$3.4B	D7
Net Income	$2.4B	D8
EPS (Diluted)	$3.05	D9
P/E (undisturbed)	21.4x	D10
Cash	$5.8B	D11
Total Debt	$3.6B	D12
Enterprise Value (undisturbed)	$48.8B	D13 (=D5+D12−D11)

1.3 Deal Terms

Term	Value
Offer Price per Share	$95.00
Payment Method	All Cash
Total Equity Value	$74.1B (= $95 × 780M)
Target Net Debt	−$2.2B (cash-rich)
Enterprise Value (offer)	$71.9B
Estimated Transaction Costs	$1.5B
Estimated Integration Costs (Year 1–2)	$2.0B total

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Bước 2 — Premium Analysis

2.1 Tính Premium

Bài tập 1: Tính premium so với các mốc giá:

Reference Price	Price	Premium Formula	Premium
Undisturbed (1 day prior)	$65.39	$\frac{95-65.39}{65.39}$	?
1-week avg	$67.50	$\frac{95-67.50}{67.50}$	?
1-month avg	$63.00	$\frac{95-63.00}{63.00}$	?
52-week high	$99.46	$\frac{95-99.46}{99.46}$	?
52-week low	$56.40	$\frac{95-56.40}{56.40}$	?

Đáp án:

Reference Price	Premium
Undisturbed	45.3%
1-week avg	40.7%
1-month avg	50.8%
52-week high	−4.5% (discount!)
52-week low	68.4%

Insight: Premium phụ thuộc rất lớn vào reference price chọn. Sell-side adviser sẽ chọn 52-week low ($56.40) để show 68.4% premium. Buy-side sẽ chọn 52-week high ($99.46) để argue "chúng tôi trả discount."

2.2 Implied Multiples

Bài tập 2: Tính implied multiples tại Offer Price:

Multiple	Numerator	Denominator	Value
EV/Revenue	$71.9B	$8.8B	?
EV/EBITDA	$71.9B	$3.4B	?
P/E (Offer)	$95	$3.05	?
EV/EBIT	$71.9B	$2.8B	?

Đáp án:

Multiple	Value	Peer Median	Premium to Peers
EV/Revenue	8.2x	5.0x	+64%
EV/EBITDA	21.1x	14.0x	+51%
P/E	31.1x	22.0x	+41%
EV/EBIT	25.7x	18.0x	+43%

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Bước 3 — Accretion/Dilution Model

3.1 All-Cash Deal Structure

Vì Microsoft trả all-cash, không có share dilution. Impact chính:

Component	Calculation	Value
Microsoft NI (pre-deal)	Given	$72.7B
+ Activision NI	Given	$2.4B
− Lost Interest Income (pre-tax)	$74.1B × 3.0%	($2.22B)
+ Tax Shield on Lost Interest	$2.22B × 18%	$0.40B
→ Lost Interest (after-tax)		($1.82B)
+ Cost Synergies (Year 1, after-tax)	$300M × (1 − 18%)	$0.25B
− Integration Costs (Year 1, after-tax)	$1.0B × (1 − 18%)	($0.82B)
− Transaction Cost Amortization (after-tax)	$1.5B ÷ 5 × (1 − 18%)	($0.25B)
− Incremental Goodwill Amortization	Tax-only (US GAAP: no amortization)	$0
Pro-forma Net Income		$72.47B

3.2 Pro-forma EPS

Bài tập 3: Tính Accretion/Dilution:

$$EP{S}_{pro-forma}=\frac{N{I}_{pro-forma}}{\text{Shares Outstanding}}$$

Metric	Value
Pro-forma NI	$72.47B
Shares Outstanding (unchanged — all-cash)	7,500M
Pro-forma EPS	$9.66
Pre-deal EPS	$9.65
Accretion/(Dilution)	+$0.01 = +0.1%

→ Marginally Accretive Year 1 (largely neutral due to lost interest income and integration costs).

3.3 Year 2 & Year 3 Analysis

Bài tập 4: Tính EPS với full synergies:

Component	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
Microsoft NI	$72.7B	$76.3B (+5%)	$80.2B (+5%)
Activision NI	$2.4B	$2.8B (+17%)	$3.2B (+14%)
Cost Synergies (AT)	$0.25B	$0.41B	$0.41B
Revenue Synergies (AT)	$0.0B	$0.25B	$0.66B
Lost Interest (AT)	($1.82B)	($1.82B)	($1.82B)
Integration Costs (AT)	($0.82B)	($0.41B)	$0.0B
Transaction Amort. (AT)	($0.25B)	($0.25B)	($0.25B)
Pro-forma NI	$72.47B	$77.28B	$82.39B
Pro-forma EPS	$9.66	$10.30	$10.99
Standalone EPS (no deal)	$9.65	$10.17	$10.69
Accretion	+0.1%	+1.3%	+2.8%

Insight: Deal trở nên increasingly accretive khi synergies ramp up và integration costs phase out.

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Bước 4 — Synergies Analysis

4.1 Synergy Schedule

Bài tập 5: Xây Synergy Schedule:

Synergy Category	Run-rate	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Cost Synergies
Headcount reduction	$200M	$100M	$200M	$200M	$200M	$200M
Infrastructure (Azure)	$150M	$50M	$100M	$150M	$150M	$150M
Distribution savings	$100M	$50M	$75M	$100M	$100M	$100M
Marketing consolidation	$50M	$25M	$50M	$50M	$50M	$50M
Subtotal Cost	$500M	$225M	$425M	$500M	$500M	$500M
Revenue Synergies
Game Pass growth	$1,000M	$0	$200M	$500M	$800M	$1,000M
Mobile (King × Xbox)	$400M	$0	$50M	$150M	$300M	$400M
Cloud gaming	$300M	$0	$50M	$150M	$200M	$300M
Subtotal Revenue	$1,700M	$0	$300M	$800M	$1,300M	$1,700M
Total Gross Synergies	$2,200M	$225M	$725M	$1,300M	$1,800M	$2,200M
Integration Costs		($1,200M)	($800M)	($200M)	$0	$0
Net Synergies		($975M)	($75M)	$1,100M	$1,800M	$2,200M

4.2 Synergy Payback Analysis

Bài tập 6: Khi nào synergies "pay for themselves"?

Total Integration Costs: $1,200M + $800M + $200M = $2,200M

Cumulative Net Synergies:

Year	Net Synergy	Cumulative
1	($975M)	($975M)
2	($75M)	($1,050M)
3	$1,100M	$50M ✅
4	$1,800M	$1,850M
5	$2,200M	$4,050M

→ Synergy payback: ~3 years — cumulative net synergies turn positive in Year 3.

4.3 PV of Synergies

Bài tập 7: Tính PV of Synergies (WACC = 9%):

$$PV=\sum _{t=1}^5\frac{Net\mathrm{\_}Synerg{y}_t}{(1.09{)}^t}+\frac{T{V}_{synergy}}{(1.09{)}^5}$$$$T{V}_{synergy}=\frac{\mathrm{\$}2,200M\times (1.02)}{0.09-0.02}=\frac{\mathrm{\$}2,244M}{0.07}=\mathrm{\$}32,057M$$

Component	Present Value
PV of Year 1–5 Net Synergies	$1,708M
PV of Terminal Value ($32,057M)	$20,835M
Total PV of Synergies	$22,543M ≈ $22.5B

Premium Paid: $74.1B − $51.0B = $23.1B

$$\frac{P{V}_{Synergies}}{Premium}=\frac{22.5}{23.1}=97\mathrm{\%}$$

→ Microsoft trả premium gần bằng toàn bộ PV synergies — Activision shareholders capture hầu hết giá trị.

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Bước 5 — Sensitivity Analysis

5.1 Accretion/Dilution Sensitivity: Offer Price × Synergies

Bài tập 8: Xây Sensitivity Table cho Year 3 Accretion/Dilution:

Year 3 Accretion %	Syn = $0	Syn = $1B	Syn = $1.3B	Syn = $2B	Syn = $2.5B
Offer = $80	+0.8%	+1.6%	+1.9%	+2.6%	+3.1%
Offer = $85	+0.3%	+1.1%	+1.4%	+2.1%	+2.6%
Offer = $90	−0.2%	+0.6%	+0.9%	+1.6%	+2.1%
Offer = $95	−0.7%	+0.1%	+0.4%	+1.1%	+1.6%
Offer = $100	−1.2%	−0.4%	−0.1%	+0.6%	+1.1%
Offer = $105	−1.7%	−0.9%	−0.6%	+0.1%	+0.6%

Insight: Tại Offer = $95, deal chỉ accretive nếu synergies ≥ ~$1B. Nếu synergies = $0, deal dilutive −0.7%.

5.2 IRR Sensitivity (nếu Microsoft coi đây là financial investment)

Giả sử Microsoft muốn tính IRR trên $74.1B investment:

	Exit Multiple 15x	18x	20x	22x	25x
EBITDA CAGR 5%	3%	7%	9%	11%	14%
EBITDA CAGR 8%	5%	9%	12%	14%	17%
EBITDA CAGR 10%	7%	11%	14%	16%	19%
EBITDA CAGR 12%	8%	13%	15%	18%	21%
EBITDA CAGR 15%	10%	15%	18%	20%	23%

Insight: Đây KHÔNG phải PE-style LBO, nên IRR thấp (3–23%) là bình thường. Strategic acquirer đánh giá deal qua accretion + strategic value, không chỉ IRR.

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Deliverables

Mỗi nhóm cần submit:

#	Deliverable	Format
1	Premium Analysis table	Excel tab "Premium"
2	Accretion/Dilution Model (Year 1–3)	Excel tab "AccDil"
3	Synergy Schedule (5 years) + PV	Excel tab "Synergies"
4	Sensitivity Table (Offer Price × Synergies)	Excel tab "Sensitivity"
5	1-page memo: "Nên hay không nên approve deal?"	Word/PDF

Assessment Rubric

Criteria	Weight	Excellent	Good	Needs Work
Premium Analysis accuracy	20%	Các premium đúng, insights sâu	Đúng số, ít insight	Sai số
Accretion/Dilution model	30%	Đủ components, multi-year	Đủ components, Year 1 only	Thiếu components
Synergies schedule	25%	Detailed ramp-up, PV tính đúng	Rough estimates, PV có	Lump sum, no PV
Sensitivity	15%	2D table, insights từ table	1D sensitivity	Không có
Memo quality	10%	Clear recommendation, supported by data	Có recommendation	Không rõ ràng

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Tips & Best Practices

✅ Pro Tips

1. Luôn tách Assumptions — Offer price, tax rate, synergies, yield on cash
2. All-cash deal ≠ "no dilution" — Mất interest income trên cash used = opportunity cost
3. PPA adjustment quan trọng — Incremental D&A từ intangibles write-up giảm EPS
4. Synergies phải có ramp-up — không bao giờ 100% Year 1
5. Check: Does premium < PV synergies? — nếu không, deal phá hủy giá trị

❌ Common Mistakes

Mistake	Hậu quả	Cách tránh
Quên lost interest on cash	Overstate accretion	Cash × yield × (1−t)
Synergies 100% từ Year 1	Unrealistic	Ramp-up over 2–4 years
Ignore integration costs	Overstate synergies	Net synergies = gross − costs
Mix pre-tax và after-tax	EPS sai	All synergies × (1−t) trước khi add to NI
Quên PPA D&A	Overstate pro-forma NI	Intangibles write-up → amortize
Không sensitivity	Không thuyết phục	2D table: Offer × Synergies

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Điều hướng Buổi 09

Tài liệu	Mô tả
📖 Bài giảng chính	Nội dung lý thuyết M&A & Restructuring đầy đủ
📝 Blog	$68.7B: Bên trong thương vụ Microsoft–Activision
📊 Case Study	Microsoft–Activision, Masan buy & build, Dell LBO
📚 Standards	CFA, Rosenbaum & Pearl, McKinsey frameworks
🔧 Workshop	M&A Analysis: Premium, Accretion/Dilution, Synergies
🎮 Game	Deal or No Deal — 8 thương vụ M&A thực tế